GERD: An appraisal

INOM

EXAMENSARBETE ELEKTROTEKNIK, GRUNDNIVÅ, 15 HP

STOCKHOLM SVERIGE 2020 ,

GERD: An appraisal GERD: En utvärdering

OSMAN ELTOM

KTH

SKOLAN FÖR KEMI, BIOTEKNOLOGI OCH HÄLSA

2

GERD: An appraisal

GERD: En utvärdering Osman Eltom

Examensarbete inom Elektroteknik Grundnivå, 15 hp

Handledare på KTH: Mannan Mridha Examinator: Elias Said

TRITA-CBH-GRU-2020:072 KTH

Skolan för kemi, bioteknologi och hälsa 141 52 Huddinge, Sverige

Sammanfattning

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam studeras vid dammens slutgiltiga fullbordande. Den hi- storiska utvecklingen av projektet, samt de politiska och ekonomiska procedurer och dess implika- tioner för projektet och hur detta påverkat och kommer påverka regionens utveckling presenteras och kontextualiseras. Olika scenarier för påfyllnad av huvudreservoarens vattentillförsel studeras genom analys av liknande fall samt teknisklitteratur, slutsatser dras utifrån beslutsfattandes re- kommendationer och observationer. Möjliga scenarier för invigning av dammen med ambitionen att minimera ansträngningen för nationer som befinner sig nedströms längst Nilens flöde belyses utifrån analysmetoden. Potentiella strategier för en hållbar framtid med minimal skada för den biologiska mångfalden i Nilbäckenet diskuteras utifrån analysmetoden.

Nyckelord: GERD, Nilbäcken, Vattenkraft, Gravitationsdam, biologisk mångfald, energihan-

tering, Civil infrastruktur, Clkraftsystem, Hållbarhet, Miljöhantering.

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Abstract

The grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a major hydropower project located in the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, is projected to become one of the biggest sources of hydroelectric power in Africa by 2022. The scale of the project is burdened with a considerable environmental and social load, the magnitude of its impact depending on a few key decisions made during the inaugural stages.

The viability of GERD in the Nile Basin is assessed. Key considerations to bear in mind during the initial filling of the main reservoir are discussed. A number of models and simulations are cited and analysed, mostly dealing with hydrological data in the region and predictions of GERD’s impact on annual flow rates. Recommendations for an environmentally conscious filling stage and subsequent operation are included in the closing statements.

Key words: GERD, Nile Basin, hydroelectric, gravity dam, biodiversity, energy management,

civil infrastructure, power systems, sustainability, environmental management.

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Contents

1 Introduction 5

2 Methodology 11

2.1 Components of the problem . . . . 13

2.1.1 Short Term Challenges: The main reservoir problem . . . . 13

2.1.2 Long Term Challenges: GERD and biodiversity in the Nile Basin . . . . 14

2.1.3 The Nile Basin Initiative . . . . 15

2.2 Data Sourcing . . . . 16

3 Results 19 3.1 Cooperative Filling . . . . 19

3.2 Sustainable water management . . . . 22

3.3 SWOT analysis for the Nile Basin Initiative . . . . 24

4 Conclusion 25

5 Bibliography 27

3

4 CONTENTS

Chapter 1

Introduction

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a civil engineering project currently under development in the Blue Nile river in Ethiopia. Expected to become the 7th largest gravity dam in the world (and the largest in Africa), GERD has an installed capacity of 6000MW, obtained through 16 375MW Francis turbines and total reservoir volume of 74km

and a complimentary saddle dam.

Development began in 2011 and has continued throughout the decade, with a completion date estimated no later than 2022. Funding for the project has been secured principally through bonds issued by the Ethiopian government, whilst a smaller fraction of the project’s budget has been obtained through international agents [4]. There is significant interest in the project’s comple- tion and subsequent operation on behalf of a number of intermediaries in the form of investors, Italian civil engineering firms and energy management businesses in the broader Mediterranean.

Principal opposition against the project comes from Egypt, downstream from GERD in the Nile, where environmental impacts in the form of stress to the region’s hydrological system could risk its biodiversity and the lives and livelihood of local inhabitants. The magnitude and nature of GERD’s environmental impact is discussed regarding the project’s size and initial management [18]. Through a discussion of policy and regulation, a case is made so as to illustrate how the project’s impact on Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt can be mitigated so as to not represent a signifi- cant threat to the greater region’s biodiversity[22]. A sketch scenario is briefly outlined in which GERD has been completed and is preparing to operate at its installed capacity while its main reservoir fills, this stage of the process is of crucial importance in regards to the project’s long term environmental impact[18]. Some of the short-term consequences for Ethiopia and the broader Mediterranean are discussed in terms of economic impact, energy management and environmental response [7].

Flowing North and into the Mediterranean Ocean, the Nile river represents Eastern Africa’s chief source of fresh water. Sudan and Egypt are expected to assume the most significant environmental burden associated to the project[2], as they are located downstream from GERD and filling the main reservoir once construction is complete can represent a significant reduction in the Nile’s flow and a substantial decline in the availability of water for the region, if done irresponsibly and adhering to inappropriate timelines [28].

Large-scale hydropower dams are known to be one of the greatest contributors to the generation of clean energy. When first conceiving a hydropower project on this scale, a careful analysis must be conducted in regards to how the natural flaws of the system and the project’s impact on the region can prove detrimental or dangerous. The system is not flawless, and its social and economic impact shouldn’t be ignored either. A project like GERD would generate enough power so as to be considered among the top ten largest energy management facilities in the world [4], the financial potential attached to the project and the project’s construction create and are expected to create very significant sources of income for Ethiopia and interested parties elsewhere in the world. A multi billion dollar project managed and operated by an Italian construction and civil engineering firm and funded by a number of parties interested in Ethiopia’s energy production capabilities, GERD represents a significant beacon of modernity and globalization to the African continent, on a site that had been scouted and surveyed more than sixty years before the project’s expected inauguration date.

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6 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

Figure 1.1: Nile Basin

Throughout the twentieth century, significant sections of the continent were surveyed and mapped as a byproduct of the presence of European colonial powers. Sites with particular po- tential for civil infrastructure, such as GERD’s spot along the Nile, were initially documented and surveyed by a number of international agencies, like USBR (United States Bureau of Reclamation).

Overall political instability in the African continent has been detrimental to the progress and ex-

ploitation of its resources, but newfound pockets of stability and solid democratic governments

have allowed this quagmire to be slowly alleviated with the onset of the twenty first century. So-

cial and economic development at a regional level, stemming from large scale projects that aim to

take advantage of untapped resources, chiefly without becoming a source of detriment or depletion,

can help create long lasting and fruitful democracies in the African continent. Properly managed,

projects like GERD can become examples of pathways towards sustainable sources of income and

job creation. A combination of policy, financial strategy and environmental consulting is required

to achieve such management and operational standards [29].

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Concerns regarding environmental impact and socio-political strain are vital reasons to consider the consequences and benefits of such large-scale hydropower projects. The projected impact, which could be detrimental to millions of people whose livelihood is based on the environmental health of the region and the exacerbation of potential negative outcomes as portrayed by the media create a situation where it is relevant and imperative to be able to produce objective studies based on hard science in order to, inter-alia, mitigate the impact of fallacious media portrayal, ensure the public has access to solid and reliable information regarding the project and alleviate the political tension between countries in the region. The aim of this report is to present the potential impact GERD could have on the Ethiopia-Sudan-Egypt region.

Figure 1.2: Overall layout for GERD facilities

Chosen methodology is an extensive literature review and a discussion regarding policy and management of the project once construction is complete. An optimal outcome for the region and all interested parties is modeled according to considerations that mitigate stress on hydrological systems and biodiversity equilibria. Analysis borrows some elements from system dynamics; The main components to the scenario to be modelled are identified and characterized, and their respec- tive contributions to the collective phenomena are quantized to the best capabilities of any one particular mathematical model. Principal short term problem to be solved is the configuration and logistics for the filling of the main reservoir once construction is complete. Different scenarios are presented in terms of their aggregated hydrological strains on the region downstream from the site.

Long term environmental impacts associated to the project occur in the form of sedimentation and

the modification of the water levels along the causeways of the Nile (not to mention alterations

to the region’s biodiversity). Successful mitigation in the long term involves sensible policies and

management protocols for the filling of the main reservoir once the project is inaugurated. Failure

to achieve this would lead to a cascade effect that would ultimately create a form of permanent

strain on the Nile Basin’s hydrological systems.

8 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

Initial developments for the project began as early as the 1960’s, when the site that the project would eventually be edified on was identified during a survey of the Blue Nile by the United States Bureau of Reclamation. Attempts during subsequent years to develop the site into a functioning gravity dam were hindered by political turmoil in the region and progress came to a grinding halt after the coup in 1974. The project remained bogged down in quagmire for the remainder of the twentieth century. In October 2009 and then again in August 2010, Ethiopian government agencies surveyed the site, and efforts to develop a project were restarted. Later that same year, in Novem- ber, an initial design proposal was submitted for review with Ethiopian government authorities and subsequently approved. After becoming public in March 2011, a 4.8bn USD contract was awarded to Italian construction and civil engineering firm Salini Construttori. There was no competition for the bid at the time it was assigned to SC.

Construction began in April 2011, with initial projections estimating that the facility’s first two turbines would become operational after about three and a half years of construction and development. Locally developed infrastructure, a rock processing plant and a small airstrip, were erected when the project commenced construction. Progress on the project has been intermittent throughout the decade, with a number of significant delays and breaches in the original project’s timeline.

Figure 1.3: Principal layout for main reservoir facilities

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Figure 1.4: Overflow Section (geometry, zoning, bedding) of the Main Reservoir

Figure 1.5: Curtain grout layout

Figure 1.6: Early warning temperature zones

10 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

12 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY

We can ’populate’ these dimensions with the following components, which are specific to our particular case;

1. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

2. Ethiopian, Sudanese and Egyptian governments 3. Nile Basin Initiative

4. Historic hydrological parameters of the region 5. Existing reservoir arrays in the Nile Basin

6. Flora and fauna endemic to and that inhabit the region

The objective is not to produce an entirely rigorous approximation of a solution to our system through the principles of system dynamics, but rather to break down a complex, multi-faceted problem into its constituents and try to see what (if any) knowledge can be aggregated from their individual examination.

Our analysis is based on and inspired by an extensive literature review regarding a stimulating

array of topics related to GERD or energy management in the Nile Basin. A significant portion

of the literature review is dedicated to introducing the problem ’from the ground up’ in a way

that elucidates the history of the geopolitcal turmoil revovling around water rights in the Nile,

Egypt’s political ’hegemony’ over the river during most of modern history and potential economic

and social impacts on the Nile Basin.

2.1. COMPONENTS OF THE PROBLEM 13

2.1 Components of the problem

2.1.1 Short Term Challenges: The main reservoir problem

A number of simulations have analyzed the evolution of the Nile Basin in recent years [40,18,19].

When conducting the literature review, a number of issues arose with most of the models available for consultation; The assumptions needed to simplify the problem to a point where modeling is effective can sometimes narrow the scope of results. Assumptions vary from publication to publica- tion, but can be related to specific hydrological conditions at different stages of GERD’s operation, failure to include other reservoirs in the region in the analysis and an oversimplification of the interactions between stakeholders.

More recently, a paper published by Kevin G. Wheeler et al [40], addressed this issue and pro- duced a model which relied on aggregated hydrological data collected from the region. Having an increased degree of accuracy in predicting water levels and flow rates for different sections along the river allows for more reliable projections. Wheeler’s model[40] also incorporates additional reservoirs into its analysis and therefore allows the user to simulate seasonal flow into Egypt and Sudan with a greater degree of accuracy that previously possible.

Finding models and tools to simulate this stage of GERD’s initial operation protocols is very important. Most of the hydrological strain to be borne on countries downstream depends on how quickly GERD’s main reservoir is allowed to fill. Having the capacity to produce sound models that extract sensible and useful data from the system is important to ensure that policy oriented consultation is based on hard facts.

Impact of GERD’s operation on Sudanese hydrological systems is predicted to be absorbed by the country’s array of existing reservoirs [38]. Historically, Sudanese reservoirs operate at mini- mum capacity to prevent sedimentation before the flood season. Integrating GERD into Sudan’s water management system would entail a modification of existing water management protocols.

The exact measure of water shortages attributed to GERD in a scenario with unmodified water management policies is undetermined, but the overall probability of water shortages in the region is not. Mitigation of the problem includes ’retrofitting’ Sudan’s reservoir array in order to integrate GERD’s presence in the Nile; As opposed to traditional practices, reservoirs should be held at maximum capacities throughout the year, with flood spills unchecked. The increased availability of water in the overall array, coupled with the uninterrupted flow brought about by flood spills, allow Sudan to mitigate the possibility of water shortages almost entirely.

Egypt’s main parameters for assessing GERD’s impact on its hydrological systems are related to the High Aswan Dam [36]. HAD is one of Egypt’s main sources of clean, renewable energy, sup- plying electrical power for a significant portion in the north of the country. GERD threatens water levels and the stability in HAD’s operation throigh dramatically reduced seasonal flow. GERD’s capacity to harm HAD’s stability and traditional levels is directly related to the approach used to fill the main reservoir; non cooperative configurations have dramatic consequences for HAD and other reservoir systems downstream, while cooperative filling configurations have impacts with much more benign consequences.

Future work could contemplate fully integrated simulations considering the entire hydrological

reservoir array in the Nile Basin. Simulations using hydrological data extracted from the region

and reservoir parameters are sufficient for estimating impact and sketching out policy, but in order

to fully exploit GERD’s potential whilst minimizing the threat of adverse impact to the region

and downstream nations, a careful study of the correlation that exists between components in the

reservoir array must be designed, conducted and reviewed.

14 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY

2.1.2 Long Term Challenges: GERD and biodiversity in the Nile Basin

Unrestricted filling protocols have the potential of effectively sequestering a significant portion of the year’s rainfall and floods. Sustained reduction in flow for the subsequent region downstream could have a variety of profound environmental impacts [32,22]. Overall reduction of water levels may lead to an increased amount of vegetation in the river banks, which could in turn further reduce the overall flow downstream.

Figure 2.1: Siltation in gravity dams

The brunt of the damage may happen at the onset of GERD’s operation, with the filling of the main reservoir. Long term detriments to the region will depend on the magnitude of the initial damage [12]. It is important to consider additional protocols to ensure an environmentally con- scious operation, even after initial stages are complete and the main reservoir is full. Additional long term threats to the Nile Basin include siltation and sedimentation phenomena commonly associated to large scale gravity dams.

Belay, A. et al[9] proposed an analysis of the efforts at water management and sustainable development in the region through the SWOT system (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats), while also applying the same analysis to the NBI.

Armanous, A. et al [9] modeled water levels along the Nile Delta aquifer considering three different scenarios:

1. Overall water levels along the Nile Delta are reduced as a direct result of GERD’s inaugural stages

2. Overal water levels are increased along the Nile Delta as a direct result of GERD’s inaugural stages

3. A combination of the previous two scenarios: Exacerbated flood seasons or longer than usual

drought seasons, either or both as a direct result of GERD’s inaugural stages

2.1. COMPONENTS OF THE PROBLEM 15

2.1.3 The Nile Basin Initiative

Historically, Egyptian civilization has depended on the Nile for agriculture, transport and trade.

For approximately the last 200 years, Egypt has transitioned into modernity through a successful takeover of water rights and causeway management in the Nile. In 2010 upper riparian states came together and signed the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement, in which a claim for water rights and exploitation of the causeway is put forth. Excluding Eritrea, every country in the Nile Basin participates in the NBI, in an effort to establish equilateral and sustainable water management protocols. In total, 10 countries participate in the initiative, including Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt.

Figure 2.2: Reservoir array in the Nile Basin

As a result of Egypt’s dominion of water rights in the Nile, developmental routes for Sudan

and Ethiopia have been hitherto stunted. Initial stages of what would eventually become multi-

lateral cooperation began as Egypt’s High Aswan Dam inevitably became incorporated into the

larger reservoir array in the Nile Basin. Cooperative frameworks between the three countries have

continued and grown more complex. An important parameter in determining whether or not the

Nile Basin Initiative can cement a lasting framework of cooperation is the continued operation of

HAD under normal conditions.

16 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY

2.2 Data Sourcing

Historical hydrological data for the Nile Basin was sourced from a 2013 paper by Krogt and Ogink.

The data set aggregates a number of different sources and uses sensible regression algorithms to reconstruct any missing ’pieces’ in their historical log. Overall, Krogt and Ogink’s data set[39]

spans 102 years, from 1900 through to 2002, and offers a complete reconstruction of all relevant hydrological parameters for the region.

Wheeler, et al[40] build on Krogt and Ogink’s model[39] by fitting their data with modern data sets to bridge the 2002-2010 gap. Simulations and cooperative filling configurations discussed consider parameters extracted from Wheeler’s data set, such as average annual flow and average water levels in different reservoirs.

An additional tool for reconstructing data sets in data scarce regions is described by Taddele, Y[13]; Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is a tool that’s most useful when reconstructing data sets obtained from data scarce regions, whilst having appropriate data sets for adjacent and surrounding regions. CSFR is similar to Wheeler’s method for bridging the gap between data available to him at the time of his research and data he had gathered himself, a key difference however is that CFSR was developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and has a much broader applicability range.

Figure 2.3: Monthly precipitation (mm) levels in the Nile Basin

Figure 2.4: Yearly precipitation (mm) levels in the Nile Basin

2.2. DATA SOURCING 17

Figure 2.5: Normalized historical and projected monthly precipitation levels

An additional measure for evaluating GERD’s impact on the historical flow levels along the Basin is the High Aswan Dam located in Egypt. Water levels in HAD have been documented historically since the project’s inauguration, and the corresponding data sets have proved useful in procuring data for hydro dynamical simulation in the region.

Gauge stations along the Nile serve to record annual flow levels amongst additional datum.

One of these gauge stations, the Diem station, located between GERD and HAD, is particularly useful to extract meaningful data:

Figure 2.6: Lake Nasser live storage and average flow

18 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY

Figure 2.7: Lake Nasser active storage (Filling phase) with normal flow

Figure 2.8: Lake Nasser active storage (Filling phase) with minimal (Nile) flow

Using Lake Nasser as a test parameter, data gathered at the Diem gague station can be imple- mented into a MODSIM schematic as Elsayed, et al showed in 2015 in order to produce models that accurately simulate GERD’s impact on the Nile’s source.

Data is entered into the MODSIM program and projections for average flow and active storage

levels are obtained by simulating extremal flow conditions from the Nile. These parameters can

then be studied coupled to the data produced under assumptions relevant to GERD’s operation

(TAARV, duration of filling phase, etcetera). The resulting programs allow us to predict GERD’s

impact on downstream flow levels during the filling phase using Lake Nasser’s active storage as a

critical parameter.

Chapter 3

Results

3.1 Cooperative Filling

A conflict of interest arises when considering filling schemes once construction in the main reservoir is complete. In a rather obvious manner, the less water the dam releases downstream, the faster it can get to design capacity and produce at its projected output. Wheeler et al. [40] described a solution to the problem coined as cooperative filling. The idea is simple: GERD’s impact on the Nile Basin is routinely analyzed using hydrological data produced by other reservoirs in the region. Some of these additional reservoirs are downstream from GERD, and are posed to absorb the brunt of its impact.

Cooperative filling is a scheme in which GERDs filling protocols are not determined only by the stakeholders interests, but rather by a number of agents that represent the population and general interests of a region. In Wheeler’s study, GERDs estimated main reservoir filling time is modeled and predicted in different scenarios and under different configurations of cooperative filling, as shown in the following figure:

Figure 3.1: Projected filling times for GERD’s main reservoir in different Coop-Fill configurations

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20 CHAPTER 3. RESULTS

The horizontal axis in figure 3.1 represents the TAARV total agreed annual release volume, and indicates the amount of water released from GERD, per annum, downstream into the Nile. Note that BCM stands for billion cubic meters and is a unit of volume. Scenarios were modeled in an interval designed to most accurately represent historical hydrological conditions in the Nile Basin.

The lower bound, 30.3BCM, represents the average amount of annual flow in the region for a drought year. The upper bound, 49.4BCM represents an amount of annual flow that is more significant than recent years with heavy flooding and long rain seasons.

Wheeler, et al. [40] showed that a TAARV that doesn’t excede 30.3BCM will lead to severe hydrological stress in the region further downstream from GERD, and also that if it should exceed 49.9BCM, the main reservoir does not accumulate maximum capacity in a sensible amount of time. Operation within the previously described interval ensures that downstream nations receive historically traditional amounts of annual flow and also that the main reservoir is accumulating volume at a satisfactory rate.

The software used to conduct computations related to the analysis is RiverWare, and requires extensive historical data regarding hydrological parameters in the region. As mentioned previously in the Methodology section, Wheeler, et al.[40] conducted their study using data compiled by Krogt and Ogink [39] in 2013. Adequate regression models are employed to seal the gap between Krogt and Ogink’s data [39](2002) and hydrological data relevant to the GERD timeline (2010 - ).

TAARV represents a coordinated effort between nations in the Nile River Basin to coordi- nate existing reservoir arrays with GERD during the filling of the main reservoir, agreed upon after determining which configuration promises the most benefit (increased energy production) and minimizes risk (water shortages downstream). Optimal water management in the Nile Basin post GERD will require coordinated, multilateral efforts that seek to minimize overall risk. Because of its geographical location, GERD affords Ethiopia a modicum of decisive power in the political balance; Unilateral decisions by Ethiopia may have collateral effects on energy management capa- bilities downstream.

A key parameter to evaluate the success of cooperation is the ability of GERD to safeguard smaller reservoirs further downstream. One of the main concerns voiced by Egypt has been the potential water shortages that GERD can provoke and how those water shortages threaten the stability of Egypt’s hydro electrical power systems.

In their study, Wheeler, et al. [40] demonstrate GERD’s capacity to support HAD through a number of drought and shortage scenarios. Succesful integration of the project in the region involves peaecful and cooperative resolution of Egyptian hegemony over the Nile without compro- mising Egypt’s electrical and hydrological network. True cooperative frameworks exist without systematic disadvantages or asymmetric relations between participants; Ethiopia and Sudan have great potential for economic growth; as a result of GERD’s energy management capabilities and an increase of available water rights over the causeways of the Nile, both countries see GERD as an opportunity towards progress and modernity. Egypt, on the other hand, sees GERD as an ex- istential threat to its primordial and historical birthright the Nile itself. Concerns regarding water level stability in Egypt’s reservoirs and a hydro electrical power network operating at a reduced capacity have been commonplace since the project’s proposal in 2010.

GERD’s TAARV operational interval is also designed to mimic seasonal hydrologic conditions, with the dam releasing a flow equivalent to that of the unrestricted Nile. These measures not only help to mitigate social and economic detriment, but also preserve the health and stability of the region. Steady and continued flow ensures no over vegetation occurs on riverbanks, mitigating the possibility of sedimentation and an overall reduction of the water level. Sustainable practices in major and minor reservoirs across the Nile Basin array can promote an important role in safe- guarding the livelihood of substantial populations that have settled on the banks of the Nile.

Various filling configurations exist (Filling phase is staged over alternative intervals, at different

intake and release levels), and different systems can be modelled according to annual precipitation

and flow conditions.

3.1. COOPERATIVE FILLING 21

Figure 3.2: Hydroelectrical reliability as a function of active storage capacity

Reduced active storage capacity in the main reservoir is not only linked to a mitigated impact on the flow levels downstream, but also to an increased reliability in GERD’s production capaci- ties. Maintaining an active storage capacity of 35km

yields a predicted reliability of .9 with an acceptable impact on the availability of water in the Nile.

In any given scenario, a parameter for determining long term impact may be obtained as follows;

the projected impact on the annual flow during and after the initial filling phase is divided by the

historical average. The ratio of the flow after operational GERD in relation to the flow before

GERD can then be utilized to adjust simulations that model the impact of GERD on downstream

countries and other reservoirs.

22 CHAPTER 3. RESULTS

3.2 Sustainable water management

Figure 3.3: GERD-HAD schematic during the filling phase

One of the main challenges in establishing sustainable water management protocols in GERD (And the greater Nile Basin region) is finding integrated approaches that successfully deal with each of the individual nations issues. Scarcity of water management professionals in the region exacer- bates the difficulty in designing and implementing region wide solutions. An additional dimension to the problem is the fact that each of the participating nations has individual shortcomings and flaws in their respective water management systems. Producing a quantifiable prediction of how these situations can impact the decision making process in GERD’s inaugural stages is difficult and perhaps unproductive. GERD represents a project of unprecedented magnitude in the region, and water management practices will react and adapt to its impact on the Nile. Establishing efficient water management protocols in the region post GERD is one of the Nile Basin Initiative’s main challenges.

Whittington, et al have produced a model that simulates an optimal cooperative environment within NBI members. In their analysis, water management efforts in the form of hydro electric power generation and irrigation are expected to produce revenue in the order of 10bn USD.

Successful water management in the region is predicated first and foremost on cooperation between

riparian countries.

3.2. SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT 23

GERD is a project of unprecedented size in the Nile Basin, its performance and sustainability standard must be assessed using a number of indicators that are pertinent to the region. Chen, H [12], determines the overall sustainability standard in GERD using a list of parameters determined by the World Commission on Dams, and rules that, whilst new areas of opportunity exist, the main factor to determine GERD’s sustainability in the region will be Egypt’s willingness to establish cooperative frameworks with Ethiopia over water management in the Nile.

Figure 3.4: Aggregated of GERD intake on Lake Nasser during overall filling phase Figure 3.4 represents Lake Nassers overall active storage during GERD’s initial filling phase.

Key assumptions made to produce this pot were; Normal or average annual flow levels from the

Nile, a six year filling phase and a TAARV determined to emulate historical flow levels downstream.

24 CHAPTER 3. RESULTS

3.3 SWOT analysis for the Nile Basin Initiative

1. Strengths:

(a) Cooperative framework across riparian nations (b) Ethics favor sustainable and equilateral development

(c) Initiatives like NBI favor the sharing of resources and ideas

(d) Strong financial backing and budget stability throughout the course of the project 2. Weaknesses:

(a) Scale of the undertaking is unprecedented and therefore uncertainty is considerable (b) Lack of institutional support and cohesiveness in riparian countries

(c) Failure to secure accurate data bases pertaining to the region’s hydrological data 3. Opportunities:

(a) Sustained World Bank funding creates the possibility of stable funding in the future, furthering the initiative’s interest.

(b) As GERD approaches inauguration, the initiative gains credibility and therefore is more effective as a platform for the larger interests of the NBI

4. Threats:

(a) Contrasting policies amongst riparian countries may stunt efforts to establish accurate data bases and/or perform precise readings

(b) Restrictions on water usage imposed by the Nile Basin Water Treaty of 1929

(c) Corruption in riparian countries may directly or indirectly affect data collected from existing reservoir systems

(d) Extenuating circumstances in the world may force riparian countries to disregard their

obligations with NBI and pursue further career opportunities elsewhere

Chapter 4

Conclusion

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam represents a project in unprecedented scale for Ethiopia, the Nile Basin and Africa as a whole. GERD will provide Ethiopia with significant opportunities for modernization and the development of infrastructure, whilst providing international stakeholders with a means of establishing a lasting hydro electrical network in Northern Africa. For downstream countries, economic benefits could manifest in the form of increased stability in water levels and milder drought seasons during the hotter months of the year (GERD has the capacity of emulating the Nile’s natural seasonal flow, whilst adjusting for perceived shortages on a case to case basis).

Exploitation of GERDs potential must be conducted with particular care not to detriment the Nile Basin’s environment or biodiversity. It has been shown that an immediate filling of GERDs main reservoir would be followed with severe consequences for Egypt and Sudan in terms of water availability, while also dealing a significant blow to the region’s biodiversity through the reduction of water levels along the Nile Delta and the subsequent vegetation and siltation of the adjacent river banks. A sensible solution to the problem is presented through the notion of cooperative filling, and as per the Nile Basin Initiative’s protocols to ensure sustainable and equilateral water rights management in the Nile, to be determined as GERD inaugurates in 2022.

Categorical claims that GERD represents an intrinsic threat to the Nile Basin are unfounded and often salacious in nature; GERD has the potential to be a beacon of sustainable and equilateral development and progress in the region, but proper care must be taken in order to ensure that the necessary steps are taken and executed appropriately.

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26 CHAPTER 4. CONCLUSION

Personal Assessment

The need for development in Africa is unquestionable, and the potential for large scale projects like GERD create a landscape of opportunities and possibilities. Large scale infrastructure projects in developing nations can act as agents of change and development, providing an opportunity for the creation of employment and, in GERD’s case, a national source of clean energy.

Egypt has expressed skepticism and resistance in regards to the GERDs development and the accompanying proposed changes in regulation regarding water rights in the Nile. The GERDs successful integration is deeply interconnected and dependent on Egypt’s posture in regards to the project; the necessary negotiations are to be conducted through the NBI, and if successful will represent the first alternative to Egyptian hegemony over the Nile in recorded history.

Additionally, filling configurations associated with reduced impact on the region have consid- erably longer times required for the main reservoir to fill, which from a purely pragmatical point of view, is counterproductive. It would seem that, if acting purely on its own interest, GERD’s direct beneficiaries (Ethiopia, Salini Construttori and investors) would take a very different course of action than the one that has been previously described in this report.

While it may seem counterproductive and ineffective in the short term, filling configurations

that mitigate the impact on Sudan and Egypt must be adopted in order for the project’s acceptance

in the region to be feasible. In an environmental, social and economic level, purely egoistic and

pragmatic operation of GERD will lead to disastrous environmental consequences in the Nile Basin

and a profound bittering of relations between riparian nations in the region.

27

Chapter 5

Bibliography

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