On the Causal Mechanisms of Stuttering

Full text

(1)On the Causal Mechanisms of Stuttering Alm, Per A. 2005. Link to publication. Citation for published version (APA): Alm, P. A. (2005). On the Causal Mechanisms of Stuttering. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Lund University.. Total number of authors: 1. General rights Unless other specific re-use rights are stated the following general rights apply: Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Read more about Creative commons licenses: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.. L UNDUNI VERS I TY PO Box117 22100L und +46462220000.

(2) On the Causal Mechanisms of. Stuttering Per A. Alm Lund University, Sweden, 2005.

(3) 2QWKH&DXVDO0HFKDQLVPVRI6WXWWHULQJ 3HU$$OP 'HSDUWPHQWRI&OLQLFDO1HXURVFLHQFH /XQG8QLYHUVLW\6ZHGHQ .

(4) &RYHU 7KHVWULDWXPWKHODUJHVWVWUXFWXUHRIWKHEDVDOJDQJOLDYLHZHGIURPWKHOHIWVLGHRI WKHEUDLQ,WLVVXJJHVWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKDWWKHPRWRUIXQFWLRQVRIWKHEDVDOJDQJOLD DUH FHQWUDO LQ VWXWWHULQJ ,OOXVWUDWLRQ IURP WKH FRPSXWHU VRIWZDUH ,QWHU%UDLQ E\ SHUPLVVLRQRI0DUWLQ&+LUVFK6SULQJHU9HUODJ%HUOLQ

(5) . ,6%1. LL.

(6) 7R6DKOL6FKLOGHUDQG6HHPDQ ZKRUHODWHGVWXWWHULQJWRWKH IXQFWLRQVRIWKHEDVDOJDQJOLD PRUHWKDQ\HDUVDJR. . . LLL.

(7) /,672)3$3(56 7KLVWKHVLVLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJSDSHUVWKDWZLOOEHUHIHUUHGWRE\WKHLU5RPDQ QXPHUDOV ,. $OP3$

(8) 6WXWWHULQJHPRWLRQVDQGKHDUWUDWHGXULQJDQWLFLSDWRU\ DQ[LHW\DFULWLFDOUHYLHZ-RXUQDORI)OXHQF\'LVRUGHUV. ,, $OP3$

(9) 6WXWWHULQJDQGWKHEDVDOJDQJOLDFLUFXLWVDFULWLFDOUHYLHZRI SRVVLEOHUHODWLRQV-RXUQDORI&RPPXQLFDWLRQ'LVRUGHUV ,,, $OP3$

(10) &RSSHULQGHYHORSPHQWDOVWXWWHULQJDVWXG\RISODVPD FRSSHUFHUXORSODVPLQDQGHVWLPDWHGIUHHFRSSHU)ROLD3KRQLDWULFDHW /RJRSDHGLFD,QSUHVV ,9 $OP3$

(11) 6WXWWHULQJDQGVHQVRU\JDWLQJDVWXG\RIDFRXVWLFVWDUWOH SUHSXOVHLQKLELWLRQ6XEPLWWHG 9 $OP3$ 5LVEHUJ-

(12) 6WXWWHULQJLQDGXOWVWKHDFRXVWLFVWDUWOH UHVSRQVHWHPSHUDPHQWDOWUDLWVDQGELRORJLFDOIDFWRUV6XEPLWWHG 3DSHU,DQG,,LVUHSULQWHGZLWKSHUPLVVLRQRI(OVHYLHU6FLHQFHDQGSDSHU,,,ZLWK SHUPLVVLRQRI6.DUJHU$*%DVHO. LY.

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

(14) ZKLFKGHILQHVWZRSDUDOOHOSUHPRWRU V\VWHPV WKH PHGLDO EDVDO JDQJOLD 60$

(15) DQG WKH ODWHUDO ODWHUDO SUHPRWRU FRUWH[ FHUHEHOOXP

(16) 6WXWWHULQJ LV VXJJHVWHG WR EH FDXVHGE\DGLVWXUEDQFHRI WKH PHGLDO V\VWHP LQ PRVWFDVHVLQWKHEDVDOJDQJOLD7KHFRUHG\VIXQFWLRQLVSURSRVHGWREHLPSDLUHGJRVLJQDOV IURPWKHPHGLDOV\VWHPVXSSRVHGWRWULJJHUWKHQH[WPRWRUVHJPHQWLQVSHHFK 8QGHU VRPH FRQGLWLRQV VSHHFK FRQWURO LV VKLIWHG IURP WKH PHGLDO WR WKH ODWHUDO V\VWHP WKHUHE\ E\SDVVLQJ WKH G\VIXQFWLRQ DQG UHVXOWLQJ LQ IOXHQW VSHHFK 7KH ODWHUDO V\VWHP LV VXJJHVWHG WR EH DFWLYH ZKHQ VSHHFK LV FRPELQHG ZLWK VHQVRU\ LQSXW OLNH FKRUXV VSHHFK RU PHWURQRPH$OVRWKHHIIHFWRIDOWHUHGDXGLWRU\IHHGEDFNLQUHGXFLQJVWXWWHULQJLVSURSRVHGWR EHEDVHGRQWKLVPHFKDQLVP7KHODWHUDOV\VWHPLVDEOHFRQWUROVSHHFKWLPLQJZLWKRXWVHQVRU\ LQSXWEXWWKLVGHPDQGVLQFUHDVHGDWWHQWLRQWRVRPHSDUWLFXODUDVSHFWRIVSHHFKDVRFFXUVLQ LPLWDWLRQ RIGLDOHFWVH[DJJHUDWHGUK\WKPUHGXFHGVSHHFKUDWHRUUROHSOD\$OVRVLQJLQJLV VXJJHVWHGWREHEDVHGRQWKHODWHUDOV\VWHP 6XSHUIOXRXV PXVFXODU DFWLYDWLRQ DFFRPSDQ\LQJ VWXWWHULQJ PD\ EH D W\SH RI G\VWRQLD LQYROXQWDU\ FRQWUDFWLRQV UHODWHG WR WKH EDVDO JDQJOLD GLVWXUEDQFH 7KH KLJK SUHYDOHQFH RI VWXWWHULQJ DW DJH ±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

(17) &217(176 /LVWRISDSHUV LY $EVWUDFW Y $FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV YLLL $EEUHYLDWLRQV [ 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJSnVYHQVND 6XPPDU\ LQ6ZHGLVK

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

(19) 6FDOHVRIWHPSHUDPHQWDQGSHUVRQDOLW\. . $FRXVWLFVWDUWOH . . . . YL. %DVLFLGHDV 6XUYH\WRSDUWLFLSDQWV 2YHUYLHZRIH[SHULPHQWDOVWXGLHVLQWKHFXUUHQWSURMHFW . 3DUWLFLSDQWVZLWKVWXWWHULQJDQGRUFOXWWHULQJ &RQWUROSHUVRQV (WKLFDODSSURYDO . 7KH%$6VFDOH 'HWDFKPHQWDQGLUULWDELOLW\ $Q[LHW\ :856FKLOGKRRG$'+'VFDOH 5HOLDELOLW\RIVFDOHV . *HQHUDOSURFHGXUH ,VVXHVUHODWHGWRVHQVLWLYLW\WRORXGVRXQGV 6WLPXOLDQGSURFHGXUH .

(20) 'DWDFROOHFWLRQUHGXFWLRQDQGDQDO\VLV 5HVSRQVHDPSOLWXGH &DOFXODWLRQRISUHSXOVHLQKLELWLRQ 33,

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nQJDVM|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p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|8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDO ZKR KDVVXSSRUWHGWKHZRUNLQPDQ\ZD\VZKLFKKDV EHHQ PRVW YDOXDEOH +H SURYLGHG FRQWDFW ZLWK VWXWWHULQJ SDWLHQWV FRQVWLWXWLQJ WKH ODUJHVWQXPEHURIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVDQGKHGRQDWHGWKHHOHFWURJORWWRJUDSK\DSSDUDWXV WKDWKDVEHHQXVHGLQWKHSURMHFW+HKDVDOVRFRQWULEXWHGZLWKH[WHQVLYHNQRZOHGJH H[SHULHQFHDQGLQVSLUDWLRQ , ZLVK WR WKDQN 5ROI gKPDQ DQG 6YHQ -|QVVRQ 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3V\FKLDWU\ /XQG IRU YHU\ VWLPXODWLQJ DQG IUXLWIXO GLVFXVVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH IXQFWLRQV RI WKH EDVDOJDQJOLDDQGIRUUHYLHZRIPDQXVFULSW 0\ ZDUP WKDQNV WR 'HERUDK .XOO\ ,QVWLWXWH IRU 6WXWWHULQJ 7UHDWPHQW DQG 5HVHDUFK ,67$5

(23) (GPRQWRQ &DQDGDZKR ZDVP\ WXWRU IRUDUHVHDUFKSDSHURQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI VWXWWHULQJVHYHULW\LQ ,QRXUFRQWLQXHGFRQWDFWV 'HERUDK V H[SHUWLVHGHYRWLRQDQGHQFRXUDJHPHQWKDYHEHHQPRVWLQVSLULQJWRPH,DOVRZDQW WRWKDQN&KDUOHV%HFN8QLYHUVLW\RI$OEHUWD(GPRQWRQZKRLQWURGXFHGPHWRWKH ILHOGRIDIIHFWLYHQHXURVFLHQFHDVP\WXWRUIRUDSDSHULQDQG%M|UQ)RONRZ *RWKHQEXUJ 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU SURYLGLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ WKH SK\VLRORJ\ RI IUHH]LQJ YLLL.

(24) , KDYH EHHQ IRUWXQDWH WR UHFHLYH SUDFWLFDO VXSSRUW DQG DVVLVWDQFH 0\ ZDUP WKDQNV WR 8OOD bQJTYLVW IRU SDWLHQW DVVLVWDQFH ZLWK GDWD PDQDJHPHQW DQG GDWD DQDO\VLV-HVSHU*|UDQVRQIRUH[FHOOHQWSURJUDPPLQJRIVLJQDODQDO\VLVLQ0DWODE +DQQD %ULWW )UDQ]pQ 8OOD 3HUVVRQ %LUJLWWD $EGRQ DQG $QGUHD 1RUG IRU DGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIJUDQWV DQGPDQ\RWKHU PDWWHUV 5REHUW*HRUJH 'HZVQDSDQGP\ IULHQG $QQD %DWVWRQH IRU OLQJXLVWLF UHYLHZ RI P\ LPSHUIHFW (QJOLVK .ULVWLQD /XQGKROPIRUVHYHULW\UDWLQJVRIVWXWWHULQJ<YRQQH+XOWPDQg]HN-DQ-HQVHQDQG 7RPDV /XQGp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|QVVRQ -LPP\ -HQVHQ 0DULDQQH 2UV 0DJQXV /LQGJUHQ HVSHFLDOO\ IRU WKH VXJJHVWLRQ WR XVH WKH :856 VFDOH IRU $'+' WUDLWV

(25) %HQJW /|JGEHUJ 5RJHU 3HUVVRQ 8OOD bQJTYLVW 6LY %|UMHVVRQ$QQH0DULH$XSpH%LUJLWWD:DQHNDQG(YD+RII0\VSHFLDOWKDQNVWR 3HWHU-|QVVRQIRUWKHVH\HDUVZHKDYHEHHQVWUXJJOLQJZLWKRXUWKHVHV,ZRXOGDOVR OLNHWRH[SUHVVERWKP\WKDQNVDQGP\DSRORJ\WRDOORWKHUIULHQGVZKRDOOWRRRIWHQ KDYHKHDUGPHUHSHDWWKHPDQWUD,KDYHWRZRUN )XUWKHU P\ ZDUP WKDQNV WR cNH %\VWU|P $QQLND :LOOIRUV $QLWD %ORP .DM 3HUVVRQ DQG &RQQ\ -DNREVVRQ IURP WKH 6ZHGLVK 6WXWWHULQJ $VVRFLDWLRQ IRU WKHLU VXSSRUW LQ D SUHYLRXV SURMHFW ZKLFK ZDV WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW IRU WKLV WKHVLV WR DOO IULHQGV LQ 6NnQHV 6WDPQLQJVI|UHQLQJ WKH 6WXWWHULQJ $VVRFLDWLRQ RI 6NnQH

(26) ZKLFK DOVR KHOSHG PH WR FRQWDFW D QXPEHU RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV DQG QRW OHDVW WR WKH SDUWLFLSDQWVDQGWKHFRQWUROSHUVRQVZKRHQGXUHGWKHVWXGLHV 7KH SURMHFW RQ VWXWWHULQJ KDV EHHQ VXSSRUWHG E\ JUDQWV IURP WKH 6ZHGLVK &RXQFLO IRU 5HVHDUFK LQ WKH +XPDQLWLHV DQG6RFLDO6FLHQFHV WKH %DQNRI6ZHGHQ 7HUFHQWHQDU\ )RXQGDWLRQ WKH &UDIRRUG )RXQGDWLRQ WKH 5R\DO 3K\VLRJUDSKLF 6RFLHW\ 1HUDQGHU V IRXQGDWLRQ

(27) WKH 6M|EULQJ IRXQGDWLRQ WKH 0DUWKD /DUVVRQ IRXQGDWLRQDQGWKH(NYDOOIRXQGDWLRQIRUZKLFK,DPVLQFHUHO\JUDWHIXO. . . L[.

(28) $%%5(9,$7,216 +7 +7D +7E $$) $'+' %$ %$6 %* %,6 &0 ' ' '$) G% (&* ((* (** (0* )$) )'23$ *$%$ *3 *3H *3L .63 0 0$) 0'0$ 0,', 05, 1 3(7 33, SUH0& 37 U 60$ 6' 61 61F 61U 66, 665, 671 7$1V 7KDO 706 9/ :$663 :856. [. VHURWRQLQ VHURWRQLQUHFHSWRUW\SHD VHURWRQLQUHFHSWRUW\SHE DOWHUHGDXGLWRU\IHHGEDFN DWWHQWLRQGHILFLWK\SHUDFWLYLW\GLVRUGHU %URGPDQQDUHD FRUWLFDOUHJLRQV

(29) EHKDYLRUDODFWLYDWLRQV\VWHP EDVDOJDQJOLD EHKDYLRUDOLQKLELWLRQV\VWHP FHQWUHPHGLDQQXFOHXV DQXFOHXVRIWKHWKDODPXV

(30) GRSDPLQHUHFHSWRUW\SH GRSDPLQHUHFHSWRUW\SH GHOD\HGDXGLWRU\IHHGEDFN GHFLEHO HOHFWURFDUGLRJUDSK\ KHDUWDFWLYLW\

(31) HOHFWURHQFHSKDORJUDP UHJLVWUDWLRQRIHOHFWULFDODFWLYLW\LQWKHEUDLQ

(32) HOHFWURJORWWRJUDSK\ DQRQLQYDVLYHPHWKRGRIUHJLVWHULQJSKRQDWLRQ

(33) HOHFWURP\RJUDSK\ PXVFXODUDFWLYLW\

(34) IUHTXHQF\DOWHUHGDXGLWRU\IHHGEDFN DWUDFHUODEHOHGSUHFXUVRURIGRSDPLQH JDPPDDPLQREXW\ULFDFLG DQLQKLELWLQJQHXURWUDQVPLWWHU

(35) JOREXVSDOOLGXV DEDVDOJDQJOLDQXFOHXV

(36) JOREXVSDOOLGXVH[WHUQDOSDUW JOREXVSDOOLGXVLQWHUQDOSDUW .DUROLQVND6FDOHRI3HUVRQDOLW\ SULPDU\PRWRUFRUWH[ PDVNHGDXGLWRU\IHHGEDFN LHQRLVH

(37) PHWK\OHQGLR[\PHWKDPSKHWDPLQHHFVWDV\ PXVLFDOLQVWUXPHQWGLJLWDOLQWHUIDFH PDJQHWLFUHVRQDQFHLPDJLQJ QXPEHURIVXEMHFWV SRVLWURQHPLVVLRQWRPRJUDSK\ DEUDLQLPDJLQJPHWKRG

(38) SUHSXOVHLQKLELWLRQ ODWHUDOSUHPRWRUFRUWH[ SODQXPWHPSRUDOH DQDXGLWRU\FRUWH[DUHD

(39) 3HDUVRQFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW VXSSOHPHQWDU\PRWRUDUHD FRUWLFDODUHD

(40) VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ VXEVWDQWLDQLJUD DQXFOHXVLQWKHPLGEUDLQ

(41) VXEVWDQWLDQLJUDSDUVFRPSDFWD SURGXFHVGRSDPLQH

(42) VXEVWDQWLDQLJUDSDUVUHWLFXODWD VLPLODUIXQFWLRQDV*3L

(43) WKH6WXWWHULQJ6HYHULW\,QVWUXPHQW VHOHFWLYHVHURWRQLQUHXSWDNHLQKLELWRU DW\SHRIDQWLGHSUHVVDQW

(44) VXEWKDODPLFQXFOHXV DEDVDOJDQJOLDQXFOHXV

(45) WRQLFDOO\DFWLYHQHXURQV FKROLQHUJLFVWULDWDOLQWHUQHXURQV

(46) WKDODPXV WUDQVFUDQLDOPDJQHWLFVWLPXODWLRQ YHQWURODWHUDOQXFOHXV DQXFOHXVRIWKHWKDODPXV

(47) WKH:ULJKW $\UH6WXWWHULQJ6HOI5DWLQJ3URILOH :HQGHU8WDK5DWLQJ6FDOH FKLOGKRRGWUDLWVRI$'+'

(48) .

(49) 6$00$1)$771,1*3c69(16.$ 6800$5<,16:(',6+

(50) $ +XYXGSXQNWHUIUnQDYKDQGOLQJHQLNRUWKHW )|UHVODJHQWHRULRPVWDPQLQJ+MlUQDQKDUWYnSDUDOOHOODV\VWHPI|UWLPLQJDY VWDYHOVHURFKOMXGLWDOHWPLWWV\VWHPHWRFKVLGRV\VWHPHW6WDPQLQJlUNRSSODG WLOO PLWWV\VWHPHW YLONHW LQNOXGHUDU EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD VWUXNWXUHU PLWW L KMlUQDQ VRP lU LQEODQGDGH L DXWRPDWLVHULQJ DY ROLND EHWHHQGHQ

(51) +XYXGSUREOHPHW I|UHVOnV YDUD EULVWDQGH VWDUWVLJQDOHU I|U VWDYHOVHUQD RFK OMXGHQ L WDOHW 9LGDUH I|UHVOnV DWW XQGHU YLVVD I|UKnOODQGHQ VNLIWDU VW\UQLQJHQ DY WLPLQJ WLOO VLGR V\VWHPHW YLONHW J|UD DWW WDOHW IO\WHU HOOHU VWDPQLQJHQ PLQVNDU D

(52) QlU WDOHW NRSSODVWLOOVLQQHVLQWU\FNVRPYLGN|UOlVQLQJHOOHUWDOLWDNWPHGPHWURQRP E

(53) QlUQnJRQDVSHNWDYWDOHWVW\UVPHGHQI|UK|MGJUDGDYXSSPlUNVDPKHWWH[YLG LPLWDWLRQDYGLDOHNW|YHUGULYHQU\WPHOOHUVlQNWWDOKDVWLJKHWHOOHU F

(54) YLGVnQJ 2FNVn I|UlQGUDG K|UVHOnWHUNRSSOLQJ I|UHVOnV VW|GMD VNLIWH WLOO VLGRV\VWHPHW EDVHUDWSnVLGRV\VWHPHWVLQEODQGQLQJYLGEHDUEHWQLQJDYVLQQHVLQWU\FN 6WDPQLQJ EDVHUDV LQWH Sn HQ QHUY|V OlJJQLQJ PHQ lU NRSSODG WLOO HQ VlQNW WU|VNHO I|U DYEURWW L WDOHW 2UR I|U WDOVLWXDWLRQHUNDQ XWYHFNODV VRP HQHIIHNWDY WDOVYnULJKHWHUQD (Q XQGHUJUXSS DY GH VWDPPDQGH UDSSRUWHUDGH YLVVD GUDJ DY XSSPlUNVDPKHW VW|UQLQJ HOOHU K\SHUDNWLYLWHW $'+'

(55) XQGHU EDUQGRPHQ 'H IOHVWD DY GHVVD GHOWDJDUH UDSSRUWHUDGH RFNVn ROLND KlQGHOVHU DY QHXURORJLVN QDWXU I|UH VWDP QLQJHQ E|UMDGH VRP I|UORVVQLQJVNRPSOLNDWLRQHU HOOHU KMlUQVNDNQLQJ PHG PHG YHWVO|VKHW YLOND HYHQWXHOOW NDQ KD SnYHUNDW EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD 'lUHPRW UDSSRUWHUDGH GHOWDJDUQD XWDQ WHQGHQV WLOO $'+' XQGHU EDUQGRPHQ YDQOLJHQ PLQVWHQVWDPPDQGHVOlNWLQJPHQLQJDVlUVNLOGDKlQGHOVHUDYQHXURORJLVNDUW % ' HILQLWLRQDYVWDPQLQJ )|UVODJWLOOGHILQLWLRQDYVWDPQLQJGHOYLVEDVHUDWSnWLGLJDUHGHILQLWLRQHU 6WDPQLQJ lU HQ WDOVW|UQLQJ VRP NlQQHWHFNQDV DY VYnULJKHWHU DWWU|UDVLJIUDPnWLWDOHWQlUSHUVRQHQYHWYDGKDQHOOHUKRQYLOO VlJD 6W|UQLQJHQ XWWU\FNV VRP VYnULJKHWHU DWW LQLWLHUD OMXG I|UOlQJQLQJDU DY OMXG UHSHWLWLRQHU DY OMXG VWDYHOVHU RUG HOOHU IUDVHU RPIRUPXOHULQJDU SDXVHU |YHUIO|GLJD OMXG HOOHU RUG HOOHU XQGYLNDQGHDYWDO , YLVVD IDOO lU VW|UQLQJHQ I|UNQLSSDG PHG RQRUPDO PXVNHO VSlQQLQJHOOHURQRUPDODU|UHOVHUVlUVNLOWLKDOVPXQRFKDQVLNWH PHQlYHQL|YULJDNURSSHQ 7DOVW|UQLQJHQ NDQ YDUD GROG RP SHUVRQHQ O\FNDV DQYlQGD PHGYHWQDVWUDWHJLHUI|UDWWXQGYLNDDWWYLVDV\PWRP 'HWlUW\SLVNWI|UVWDPQLQJDWWV\PWRPHQI|UVYLQQHUYLGVnQJ N|UOlVQLQJHOOHUWDOLWDNWPHGPHWURQRP . . [L.

(56) & %DNJUXQG $YKDQGOLQJHQ lU HWW I|UV|N DWW NODUOlJJD RUVDNVPHNDQLVPHUQD EDNRP HQ DY GH YDQOLJDVWH WDOVW|UQLQJDUQD VWDPQLQJ YLONHQ L YLVVD IDOO LQQHElU HWW DOOYDUOLJW NRPPXQLNDWLRQVKDQGLNDSS 2UVDNHUQD WLOO VWDPQLQJ KDU I|UEOLYLW RNODUD (WW VWRUW DQWDO ROLND I|UNODULQJDU KDU I|UHVODJLWV LQULNWDGH Sn SV\NRORJLVND VRFLDOD LQOlU QLQJVPlVVLJDHOOHUQHXURORJLVNDDVSHNWHU$YKDQGOLQJHQIRNXVHUDUSnKMlUQDQLI|U KnOODQGHWLOOVWDPQLQJEDVHUDWSnDQWDJDQGHWDWWDOODIDNWRUHUVRPSnYHUNDUVWDPQLQJ KDUVLQHIIHNWJHQRPSnYHUNDQSnKMlUQDQVIXQNWLRQHU ' 6WUDWHJLI|USURMHNWHW (Q VYnULJKHW PHG GHQQD W\S DY IRUVNQLQJ lU DWW VWDPQLQJ YHUNDU YDUD HQ KHWHURJHQVW|UQLQJPHGVNLIWDQGHRUVDNVEDNJUXQGRFKVNLIWDQGHV\PWRPPHQGHWlU LQWH NODUW KXU GHVVD VNLOOQDGHU VND EHVNULYDV )|OMDQGH VWUDWHJL IRUPXOHUDGHV YLG SODQHULQJDYSURMHNWHW $WWJHK|JSULRULWHWI|UWHRUHWLVNXWYHFNOLQJEDVHUDWSnUHGDQSXEOLFHUDGHGDWD $WW DQYlQGD HQ EUHG DQVDWV RFK XQGHUV|ND PnQJD ROLND DVSHNWHU KRV VDPPD LQGLYLGHU $WWDQYlQGDHQNRPELQDWLRQDYVNH[SORUDWLYDVWXGLHURFKSU|YQLQJDYVSHFLILND K\SRWHVHU ( 7HRUHWLVNWDUEHWH 'HW WHRUHWLVND DUEHWHW YDU VlUVNLOW LQULNWDW Sn WYn ROLND DVSHNWHU GHOV VWUHVVRUR GHOVEDVDODJDQJOLHUQD ( $UWLNHO,6WDPQLQJRFKI|UYlQWDWREHKDJ $UWLNHO,lUHQI|UQ\DGDQDO\VDYSXEOLFHUDGHGDWDDQJnHQGHKMlUWIUHNYHQVHQKRV VWDPPDQGHSHUVRQHULVWUHVVDQGHWDOVLWXDWLRQHU'HQQDW\SDYVWXGLHKDULQWHNXQQDW YLVD QnJRWW\GOLJWVDPEDQGPHOODQVWDPQLQJRFKVWUHVVHOOHURUR7YlUWRPKDUIOHUD VWXGLHUUDSSRUWHUDWOlJUHKMlUWIUHNYHQVRFKEORGWU\FNKRVVWDPPDQGHSHUVRQHUQlUGH XWVlWWV I|U VWUHVVDQGH SUHVVDWWWDOD'HWWD KDU OHWW QnJUDI|UIDWWDUHWLOO GHQRYlQWDGH VOXWVDWVHQDWWVWDPQLQJVNXOOHPLQVNDVWUHVVRFKDWWVWDPQLQJVNXOOHXSSI\OODQnJRQ W\SDYRPHGYHWHWEHKRYKRVGHPVRPVWDPPDU0HGDQGUDRUGUHVXOWDWHQDYGHVVD VWXGLHUKDUI|UHVODJLWVVW|GMDHQSV\NRDQDO\WLVNI|UNODULQJDYVWDPQLQJ ,DUWLNHO,DUJXPHQWHUDVI|UDWWGHVVDUDSSRUWHUKDUEOLYLWPLVVWRONDGHVlQNQLQJDY KMlUWIUHNYHQV RFK EORGWU\FN lU HQ QRUPDO RFK YDQOLJ UHDNWLRQ KRV PlQQLVNRU RFK DQGUD GlJJGMXU L VLWXDWLRQHUGlUPDQI|UYlQWDUVLJDWWQnJRWREHKDJOLJWNRPPHUDWW LQWUlIID QlU PDQ LQWH YHW KXU PDQ ElVW VND KDQWHUD VLWXDWLRQHQ 'HQQD W\S DY UHDNWLRQ KDU RFNVn NDOODWV IUHH]LQJ HIWHUVRP GHQ lU I|UNQLSSDG PHG YDULHUDQGH JUDGDYKlPQLQJDYU|UHOVHUQD9LGDUHI|UHVOnVLDUWLNHOQDWWKRVVWDPPDQGHlUGHQQD UHDNWLRQ HQ HIIHNW DY WLGLJDUH QHJDWLYD HUIDUHQKHWHU DY VWDPQLQJ YLOND NDQ VNDSD I|UYlQWDQRPREHKDJLWDOVLWXDWLRQHU. [LL.

(57) ( $UWLNHO,,IRUWVDWWGLVNXVVLRQLDYKDQGOLQJHQ6WDPQLQJRFK EDVDODJDQJOLHUQD 9lQVWHU RFK K|JHU KMlUQKDOYD 'HQ PHVW VSULGGD QHXURORJLVND WHRULQ RP VWDPQLQJ XQGHU GH VHQDVWH nUHQ KDU YDULW DWW VWDPQLQJ RUVDNDV DY HQ NRQIOLNW PHOODQ YlQVWHU RFK K|JHU KMlUQKDOYD DQJnHQGH VW\UQLQJHQ DY WDOHW 1RUPDOW VW\UV WDOHWIUDPI|UDOOWDYYlQVWHUKMlUQKDOYDPHQKRVVWDPPDQGHSHUVRQHUYHUNDUK|JHU KMlUQKDOYD YDUD PHU DNWLY lQ QRUPDOW YLG WDO,DUWLNHO ,,DUJXPHQWHUDVGRFNI|U DWW GHQRYDQOLJWNUDIWLJDLQEODQGQLQJHQDYK|JHUKMlUQKDOYDLQWHRUVDNDUVWDPQLQJXWDQ LVWlOOHWGHOYLVNRPSHQVHUDUI|UGHQJUXQGOlJJDQGHVW|UQLQJHQ %DVDOD JDQJOLHUQD HQ GHO DY PLWWV\VWHPHW (Q DOWHUQDWLY WHRUL VRP I|UHVOnV L GHQQDDYKDQGOLQJlUDWWVWDPQLQJRUVDNDVDYHQVW|UQLQJLGHQDXWRPDWLVNDSURGXN WLRQHQ DY HQ WDOVHNYHQV 6W|UQLQJHQ lU NRSSODG WLOO GHW PHGLDOD SUHPRWRULVND V\VWHPHW L KMlUQDQ HOOHU I|UNRUWDW PLWWV\VWHPHW 3UHPRWRULVN V\IWDU Sn DWW GHWWD V\VWHPPHGYHUNDULSODQHULQJRFKVW\UQLQJDYPRWRULNLQNOXVLYHWDO0LWWV\VWHPHWlU ORNDOLVHUDWUXQWKMlUQDQVPLWWOLQMHRFKEHVWnUIUDPI|UDOOWDYEDVDODJDQJOLHUQDRFK VXSSOHPHQWlUD PRWRUDUHDQ 60$

(58) %DVDOD JDQJOLHUQD lU HQ VDPOLQJ VWUXNWXUHU XQJHIlULPLWWHQDYKMlUQDQPHGYLNWLJDIXQNWLRQHUI|UDXWRPDWLVHULQJDYROLNDW\SHU DYEHWHHQGHQLQNOXVLYHPRWRULNYLGWDO(WWYlONlQWH[HPSHOSnHQVW|UQLQJDYEDVDOD JDQJOLHUQDV IXQNWLRQ lU 3DUNLQVRQV VMXNGRP VRP RUVDNDV DY EULVW Sn VLJQDO VXEVWDQVHQ GRSDPLQ RFK VRP UHVXOWHUDU L VYnULJKHWHU DWW LQLWLHUD U|UHOVHU 'RSDPLQ UHJOHUDUIXQNWLRQHQKRVEDVDODJDQJOLHUQDSnHWWNRPSOH[WVlWWLVDPVSHOPHGIOHUD DQGUDVLJQDOVXEVWDQVHU60$lUHQGHODYKMlUQEDUNHQRFKDQWDVKDHQQ\FNHOUROOQlU GHWJlOOHUDWWJHQHUHUDVWDUWVLJQDOHUI|UU|UHOVHULQNOXVLYHWDORUJDQHQVU|UHOVHU *UXQGYDOHQI|UGHQQDWHRULlUDWWWDONDQEHVNULYDVVRPHQPRWRULVNVHNYHQVGlU VWDYHOVHURFKOMXGXWJ|UGHODU VHJPHQW

(59) 'HWlUVDQQROLNWDWWEDVDODJDQJOLHUQDRFK 60$ KDU HQ YLNWLJ IXQNWLRQ YLG QRUPDOW WDO DWW EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD JHQHUHUDU WLGVPDUN|UHU YLG VOXWHW DY VHJPHQWHQ L VHNYHQVHQ RFK GlULJHQRP VLJQDOHUDU WLOO 60$ DWW JH VWDUWVLJQDO I|U QlVWD VHJPHQW 'HQ FHQWUDOD VW|UQLQJHQ YLG VWDPQLQJ I|UHVOnVYDUDEULVWDQGHIXQNWLRQKRVGHVVDVWDUWVLJQDOHU 'XEEOD SUHPRWRULVND V\VWHP (Q VOnHQGH DVSHNW DY VWDPQLQJ lU DWW V\PSWRPHQ YDQOLJWYLVLQWHPlUNVXQGHUYLVVDRPVWlQGLJKHWHUWH[YLGWDOLWDNWPHGPHWURQRP YLGK|JOlVQLQJWLOOVDPPDQVPHGQnJRQDQQDQHOOHUYLGVnQJ,DYKDQGOLQJHQI|UHVOnV DWW GHVVD IHQRPHQ NDQ I|UNODUDV PHG DWW KMlUQDQ KDU WYn SDUDOOHOOD SUHPRWRULVND V\VWHP PHG YLVVD IXQNWLRQHOOD VNLOOQDGHU PLWWV\VWHPHW GLVNXWHUDW RYDQ

(60) RFK VLGRV\VWHPHW 6LGRV\VWHPHW EHVWnU DY GHQ ODWHUDOD SUHPRWRULVND KMlUQEDUNHQ RFK OLOOKMlUQDQ1lUWDONRQWUROOHQYl[ODVIUnQPLWWV\VWHPHWWLOOVLGRV\VWHPHWlUVWDPQLQJV V\PWRPHQERUWDHOOHUPLQVNDGH. 'HWWDKDUI|UHVODJLWVWLGLJDUHDY$5%UDXQRFKPHGDUEHWDUH

(61) 'HQQDWHUPLQRORJLlUHQ|YHUVlWWQLQJRFKI|UNRUWQLQJDYWKHPHGLDOSUHPRWRUV\VWHP,QlVWD. DYVQLWW GLVNXWHUDV lYHQ WKH ODWHUDO SUHPRWRU V\VWHP HOOHU VLGRV\VWHPHW 0RGHOOHQ RP GXEEOD SUHPRWRULVND V\VWHP lU IRUPXOHUDG DY * *ROGEHUJ

(62) WKH GXDO SUHPRWRU V\VWHPV K\SRWKHVLVGRFNXWDQNRSSOLQJWLOOVWDPQLQJ. . . [LLL.

(63) (QOLJW GHQQD PRGHOO KDU EnGD V\VWHPHQ I|UPnJD DWW VW\UD VWDUWVLJQDOHUQD I|U WDOVHNYHQVHQ PHQ PHG YLVVD EHJUlQVQLQJDU 9LG VSRQWDQW WDO VRP V\IWDU WLOO DWW I|UPHGOD HWW EXGVNDS RFK VRP EDVHUDV Sn HQ YLOMD DWW NRPPXQLFHUD Vn VW\UV VWDUWVLJQDOHUQD QRUPDOW JHQRP PLWWV\VWHPHW 0HQ RP VWDUWVLJQDOHUQD Sn QnJRW VlWW NRSSODV WLOO \WWUH VLJQDOHU WH[ HQ PHWURQRP HOOHU U|VWHQ DY HQ DQQDQ SHUVRQ YLG K|JOlVQLQJWLOOVDPPDQV

(64) VnWDVVW\UQLQJHQ|YHUDYVLGRV\VWHPHW'HWWDVNXOOHI|UNODUD YDUI|U VWDPQLQJ LQWH YLVDV XQGHU GHVVD I|UKnOODQGHQ VW|UQLQJHQ KRV PLWWV\VWHPHW NRSSODVI|UELYLGYl[OLQJHQWLOOVLGRV\VWHPHW 6LGRV\VWHPHW KDU I|UPnJD DWW SURGXFHUD VWDUWVLJQDOHU lYHQ XWDQ VW|G IUnQ \WWUH VLJQDOHUPHQGHWNUlYHUHQI|UK|MGQLYnDYXSSPlUNVDPKHWSnQnJRQDVSHNWDYWDOHW YLONHW J|U WDOHW PLQGUH VSRQWDQW , DYKDQGOLQJHQ I|UHVOnV DWW GHQQD HIIHNW YLVDV QlU VWDPQLQJHQPLQVNDUYLGLPLWDWLRQDYHQGLDOHNWYLGWDOPHG|YHUGULYHQU\WPHOOHUYLG WDOPHGPHGYHWHWNRQWUROOHUDGVlQNWWDOKDVWLJKHWbYHQWDOYLGUROOVSHOGnXWWU\FNHQ lUPHGYHWHWNRQWUROOHUDGHVNXOOHHQOLJWGHQQDPRGHOOVW\UDVDYVLGRV\VWHPHW9LGDUH I|UHVOnVDWWGHQW\SLVNDIUnQYDURQDYVWDPQLQJYLGVnQJRFNVnlUHQHIIHNWDYGHQQD PHNDQLVPQlUPDQVMXQJHUlUGHQH[DNWDWLGSXQNWHQI|UYDUMHVWDYHOVHEHVWlPGDY U\WPHQ L VnQJHQ RFK IRUVNQLQJVVWXGLHU SHNDU Sn DWW GHQQD U\WP SURGXFHUDV DY VLGRV\VWHPHW (Q LQWUHVVDQW DVSHNW DY VWDPQLQJ lU DWW WDOVW|UQLQJHQ RIWD PLQVNDV W\GOLJW DY I|UlQGULQJDYK|UVHOnWHUNRSSOLQJHQGYVQlUHQHOHNWURQLVNDQRUGQLQJPHGPLNUR IRQ RFK K|UVQlFND DQYlQGV I|U DWW lQGUD KXU GHQ HJQD U|VWHQ K|UV 7RQK|MGHQ DY U|VWHQ NDQ I|UlQGUDV RFK OMXGHW NDQ I|UGU|MDV HQ DQLQJ 'HQ EDNRPOLJJDQGH PHNDQLVPHQlUVDQQROLNWNRPSOH[PHQPHGXWJnQJVSXQNWIUnQDNWXHOOIRUVNQLQJRP KMlUQDQ DUJXPHQWHUDV L DYKDQGOLQJHQ DWW GHQQD I|UlQGULQJ DY K|UVHOnWHUNRSSOLQJHQ XQGHUVW|GMHUVNLIWHLWDONRQWUROOHQIUnQPLWWV\VWHPHWWLOOVLGRV\VWHPHW'HWWDlULOLQMH PHG SULQFLSHQ DWW VLGRV\VWHPHW lU DNWLYW QlU WDO NRPELQHUDV PHG EHDUEHWQLQJ DY VLQQHVLQWU\FN )OXNWXDWLRQHU L IXQNWLRQHQ KRV PLWWV\VWHPHW 'HW lU HQ YDQOLJ REVHUYDWLRQ DWW V\PWRP DY ROLND PRWRULVND VW|UQLQJDU KRV EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD WHQGHUDU DWW IOXNWXHUD EHURHQGHSnWH[VWUHVVRFKVWlPQLQJVOlJH6nGDQDIOXNWXDWLRQHUYHUNDUILQQDVLGH IOHVWD IDOO DY VWDPQLQJ (QPRGHOOI|UHVOnV GlU JUDGHQDYVWDPQLQJVV\PWRPYLG HWW YLVVW WLOOIlOOHW SnYHUNDV DY JUDGHQ DY PRWVWULGLJD LPSXOVHU WDQNDU HOOHU NlQVORU

(65) L VLWXDWLRQHQ (Q K|J QLYn DY PRWVWULGLJD LPSXOVHU NDQ UHVXOWHUD L |NDG VWDPQLQJ PHGDQHQW\GLJDLPSXOVHUWH[RGHODGJOlGMHHOOHUYUHGHWHQGHUDUDWW|NDWDOIO\WHW3n VDPPDVlWWNDQWDOQlUPDQlUHQVDPHOOHUWDOPHGKXVGMXUVHVVRPVLWXDWLRQHUPHG HQOnJJUDGDYPRWVWULGLJDLPSXOVHURFKYDQOLJHQHQK|JJUDGDYIO\WLWDOHW 'HQQD PRGHOO NDQ OHGD WLOO IUnJDQ RP VWDPQLQJ RUVDNDV DY SV\NRORJLVND NRQIOLNWHU'RFNSHNDUWLOOJlQJOLJDGDWDSnDWWVWDPPDQGHSHUVRQHULDOOPlQKHWLQWH KDU HQ I|UK|MG QLYn DY QHXURWLVLVP HOOHU DOOPlQ RUR ,VWlOOHW ILQQV VW|G I|U HQ PRGHOO GlU EHVWnHQGH VWDPQLQJ lU NRSSODG WLOO HWW QHXURORJLVNW WLOOVWnQG PHG VlQNW WU|VNHOI|UDYEURWWLWDOHW 'HW E|U SnSHNDV DWW JUDGHQ DY VWDPQLQJVV\PWRP YLG HWW YLVVW WLOOIlOOH VDQQROLNW SnYHUNDVDYHQOnQJUDGIDNWRUHUWH[JUDGHQDYXSSPlUNVDPKHWSnWDOHW LEODQGPHU VWDPQLQJ YLG DYNRSSOLQJ

(66) WLGVSUHVV WLGLJDUH QHJDWLYD HUIDUHQKHWHU DY HQ YLVV VLWXDWLRQRFKDOOPlQWLOOVWnQGHW WH[I|UN\OQLQJ

(67) (QVOXWVDWVDYGHWWDUHVRQHPDQJlU [LY.

(68) DWW GHW SV\NRORJLVND WLOOVWnQGHW KRV HQ VWDPPDQGH SHUVRQ LQWH OnWHU VLJ EHG|PDV XWLIUnQPlQJGHQREVHUYHUDGVWDPQLQJ 0HGU|UHOVHU,YLVVDIDOOlUVWDPQLQJHQI|UNQLSSDGPHGRIULYLOOLJDU|UHOVHURFK |NDG PXVNHOVSlQQLQJ 'HVVD VN PHGU|UHOVHU KDU RIWD EHWUDNWDWV VRP VHNXQGlUD LQOlUGD EHWHHQGHQ YLOND L E|UMDQ KDGH V\IWHW DWW XQGHUOlWWD WDOHW , DYKDQGOLQJHQ GLVNXWHUDVP|MOLJKHWHQDWWGHVVDU|UHOVHURFKGHQI|UK|MGDPXVNHOVSlQQLQJHQNDQVHV VRP HQ W\S DY G\VWRQL PHG GLUHNW NRSSOLQJ WLOO GHQ QHXURORJLVND RUVDNHQ WLOO VWDPQLQJHQ 7HUPHQ G\VWRQL EHWHFNQDU PRWRULVND V\PWRP VRP NlQQHWHFNQDV DY RIULYLOOLJDPXVNHOVDPPDQGUDJQLQJDU RIWDPHG VSULGQLQJWLOOQlUDOLJJDQGHPXVNOHU '\VWRQL NDQ GUDEED DOOD GHODU DY NURSSHQ lU RIWD EHJUlQVDG WLOO VWDUNW DXWR PDWLVHUDGHVHNYHQWLHOODU|UHOVHU WH[DWWVNULYDHOOHUVSHODHWWLQVWUXPHQW

(69) EOLURIWD YlUUHDYVWUHVVRFKRUVDNDVWUROLJHQDYROLNDW\SHUDYVW|UQLQJDULEDVDODJDQJOLHUQD 7LOOIlOOLJ EDUQVWDPQLQJ 6WDPQLQJ XSSYLVDU HWW P|QVWHU GlU GH IOHVWD IDOO E|UMDU WLGLJW L EDUQGRPHQ I|OMW DY DWW HQ VWRU DQGHO VOXWDU VWDPPD UHGDQ VRP EDUQ 7LOOJlQJOLJD GDWD W\GHU Sn DWW RUVDNVIDNWRUHUQD EDNRP VWDPQLQJ lU VWDUNDVW RFK YDQOLJDVWI|UHNRPPDQGHYLGnOGHUQWLOOnU'lUHIWHUPLQVNDUVW\UNDQDYGHVVD IDNWRUHU L GH IOHVWD IDOO XQGHU I|UVNROHnOGHUQ , DUWLNHO ,, DUJXPHQWHUDV I|U DWW GHWWD P|QVWHUIUDPI|UDOOWDYVSHJODUHQQDWXUOLJWRSSLDQWDOHWGRSDPLQUHFHSWRUHUW\S'L EDVDODJDQJOLHUQDYLGWLOOnUVnOGHU ) ([SHULPHQWHOODVWXGLHU /DERUDWRULHXWUXVWQLQJ E\JJGHV XSS I|U SURMHNWHW 6DPPDQODJW VWDPPDQGH YX[QDRFKNRQWUROOSHUVRQHUXWDQVWDPQLQJGHOWRJLGHROLNDWHVWHQ GRFNLQWHDOODL DOODWHVW

(70) 7UHUDSSRUWHUDYGHH[SHULPHQWHOODVWXGLHUQDLQJnULGHQQDDYKDQGOLQJRFK WYnNRPPHUDWWUDSSRUWHUDVVHQDUH DQDO\VDYWDOV\PWRPRFKHWWWHVWDYLQIO\WDQGHDY K|UVHOQSnWDOHW

(71) ) $UWLNHO,,,.RSSDURFKVWDPQLQJ 'HWKDUWLGLJDUHUDSSRUWHUDWVDWWVWDPPDQGHPlQVNXOOHKDOlJUHQLYnDYNRSSDUL EORGHW lQ QRUPDOW RFK DWW VYnULJKHWVJUDGHQ DY VWDPQLQJ VNXOOH KD HWW RPYlQW VDPEDQG PHG QLYnQ DY NRSSDU 9LGDUH lU GHW NlQW DWW VlOOV\QWD VW|UQLQJDU DY NRSSDURPVlWWQLQJHQNDQJHVW|UGIXQNWLRQKRVEDVDODJDQJOLHUQDPHGG\VWRQL'HW KDURFNVnYLVDWVDWWNRSSDUNDQSnYHUNDYLNWLJDVLJQDOVXEVWDQVHULEDVDODJDQJOLHUQD 0RWGHQQDEDNJUXQGXQGHUV|NWHVQLYnQDYNRSSDURFKNRSSDUELQGDQGHSURWHLQKRV GHVWDPPDQGHRFKNRQWUROOSHUVRQHUQDRFKQLYnQDYIULWWNRSSDUEHUlNQDGHV'RFN YLVDGH UHVXOWDWHW LQJHQ VNLOOQDG PHOODQ JUXSSHUQD RFK LQJHW VDPEDQG PHOODQ OnJW NRSSDU RFK VYnUDUH VWDPQLQJ 'HQQD VWXGLH JDY DOOWVn LQWH VW|G I|U GHQ WLGLJDUH UDSSRUWHQRPVDPEDQGPHOODQOnJWNRSSDULEORGHWRFKVWDPQLQJ. $WWVWDPQLQJNDQVHVVRPHQIRUPDYG\VWRQLKDUI|UHVODJLWVWLGLJDUHDY*.L]LOWDQRFK0$ $NDOLQ

(72) RFKDY09LFWRURFK$+5RSSHU

(73) . . . [Y.

(74) ) $UWLNHO,96WDP QLQJRFKI|UPnJDQDWWXQGHUWU\FNDOMXG +MlUQDQVDXWRPDWLVNDI|UPnJDDWWXQGHUWU\FNDEHDUEHWQLQJDYYLVVDVW|UDQGHOMXG NDQPlWDVPHGHQPHWRGVRPNDOODVVWDUWOHSUHSXOVHLQKLELWLRQ0HWRGHQLQQHElU DWWHQEOLQNUHIOH[IUDPNDOODVVRPHQUHDNWLRQSnHWWVWDUNWRFKSO|WVOLJWEUXVOMXGRFK VW\UNDQDYEOLQNQLQJHQPlWV2PGHWVWDUNDOMXGHWI|UHJnVDYHWWVYDJWOMXGPHGFD VHNXQGHUVnXQGHUWU\FNVQRUPDOWEOLQNUHIOH[HQ'HWWDNDQWRONDVVRPHWWXWWU\FN I|U HQ ILOWHUIXQNWLRQ KRV KMlUQDQ Vn DWW KMlUQDQ IRNXVHUDU Sn GHW I|UVWD OMXGHW RFK GlUI|U XQGHUWU\FNHU EHDUEHWQLQJHQ DY I|OMDQGH OMXG 'HW KDU YLVDWV DWW GHQQD ILOWHUIXQNWLRQlUI|UVlPUDGYLGYLVVDVW|UQLQJDUVRPSnYHUNDUEDVDODJDQJOLHUQD2P VWDPQLQJ KDU VDPEDQG PHG HQ VW|UQLQJ KRV EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD NDQVNH lYHQ VWDPPDQGH XSSYLVDU HQ VnGDQ PLQVNDG ILOWHUIXQNWLRQ (Q DQQDQ P|MOLJKHW VRP YL YLOOH XQGHUV|ND YDU RP GHQQD ILOWHUIXQNWLRQ NXQGH KD VDPEDQG PHG HIIHNWHQ DY I|UlQGUDGK|UVHOnWHUNRSSOLQJDWWPLQVNDVWDPQLQJ6nYLWWYLYHWKDUVWDUWOHSUHSXOVH LQKLELWLRQLQWHWLGLJDUHWHVWDWVSnVWDPPDQGH 'HQ VWDPPDQGH JUXSSHQ MlPI|UGHV PHG HQ JUXSS NRQWUROOSHUVRQHU XWDQ VWDPQLQJ'HWYnJUXSSHUQDYLVDGHP\FNHWOLNDUHVXOWDWRFKGHWIDQQVLQJHWVDPEDQG PHOODQ JUDGHQ DY ILOWHUIXQNWLRQ RFK HIIHNWHQ DY I|UlQGUDG K|UVHOnWHUNRSSOLQJ Sn VWDPQLQJ 6OXWVDWVHQ EOHY DWW GHQQD I|UPnJD DWW XQGHUWU\FNDOMXG LQWHKDUVDPEDQG PHGVWDPQLQJ ) $UWLNHO91HXURPXVNXOlUUHDNWLYLWHWWHPSHUDPHQWRFK ELRORJLVNDIDNWRUHU $UWLNHO 9 lU HQ RPIDWWDQGH UDSSRUW DY HWW IOHUWDO YDULDEOHU PHQ PHG IRNXV Sn K\SRWHVHQ DWW VWDPQLQJ NDQ KD VDPEDQG PHG |NDG QHXURPXVNXOlU UHDNWLYLWHW GYVHQWHQGHQVWLOO VWDUNDUHQHUYVLJQDOHURFKNUDIWLJDUHPXVNHOVDPPDQGUDJQLQJDU lQ QRUPDOW (Q VnGDQ WHQGHQV KDU LEODQG VDWWV L VDPEDQG PHG HWW DOOPlQW NlQVOLJW WHPSHUDPSHQW RFK WHQGHQV WLOO RUR , VWXGLHQ PlWWHVQHXURPXVNXOlUUHDNWLYLWHWVRP VW\UNDQDYEOLQNUHIOH[HQGnPDQXWVlWWVI|UHWWVWDUNWSO|WVOLJWEUXVOMXG SnHQJHOVND VWDUWOHUHIOH[

(75) 'HQQDEOLQNUHIOH[KDUlYHQVHWWVVRPHQLQGLNDWLRQSn|NDGQLYnDY lQJVOLJKHWRFKRUR ) gYHUVLNWDYWLGLJDUHUDSSRUWHU 5HDNWLYLWHW RFK RUR (Q WLGLJDUH VWXGLH % *XLWDU

(76) UDSSRUWHUDGH L JHQRPVQLWW VWDUNDUH EOLQNUHIOH[ KRV GH VWDPPDQGH MlPI|UW PHG NRQWUROO JUXSSHQ RFK DWW GHWWD GUDJ KDGH VDPEDQG PHG HWW QHUY|VW WHPSHUDPHQW bYHQ DQGUDVWXGLHUKDUUDSSRUWHUDWI|UK|MGDWHQGHQVHUWLOORURKRVVWDPPDQGHYX[QD'RFN SHNDU HQJUDQVNQLQJDYOLWWHUDWXUHQSnDWWGHQQDI|UK|MGDQLYnDYRURlUEHJUlQVDG WLOOVRFLDODWDOVLWXDWLRQHURFKIUDPI|UDOOWlUHQHIIHNWDYVMlOYDWDOSUREOHPHW²DOOWVn LQWHHWWJUXQGOlJJDQGHSHUVRQOLJKHWVGUDJ 7HPSHUDPHQWKRVVWDPPDQGHEDUQ6WXGLHUDYWHPSHUDPHQWKRVVWDPPDQGHEDUQ KDUJHWWEODQGDGHRFKPRWVWULGLJDUHVXOWDW(QP|MOLJWRONQLQJDYWLOOJlQJOLJDGDWDlU DWWWHPSHUDPHQWHWKRVVWDPPDQGHEDUQNDQ EHVNULYDV VRP HQ VNDODPHGWYn SROHU

(77) %DUQ VRP lU YlODQSDVVDGH KDU JRG NRQFHQWUDWLRQVI|UPnJD RFK YlO XWYHFNODG VSUnNOLJ I|UPnJD ² LEODQG RYDQOLJW WLGLJ VSUnNXWYHFNOLQJ

(78) %DUQ PHG GUDJ DY [YL.

(79) XSSPlUNVDPKHWSUREOHP RFKHOOHU K\SHUDNWLYLWHW VN $'+'

(80) PHG WH[ LPSXOVLYLWHWLQOlUQLQJVSUREOHPRFKI|UVHQDGPRWRULVNXWYHFNOLQJ ) 5HVXOWDW 5HDNWLYLWHW RFK RUR 7LOO VNLOOQDG PRW GHQ WLGLJDUH VWXGLHQ DY EOLQNUHIOH[ RFK VWDPQLQJYLVDGHGHQQDVWXGLHLQJHQVWDWLVWLVNWVLJQLILNDQWVNLOOQDGPHOODQVWDPPDQGH YX[QD RFK NRQWUROOJUXSSHQ L JHQRPVQLWW FD VWDUNDUH EOLQNUHIOH[ KRV GHQ VWDPPDQGH JUXSSHQ PHQ PHG VWRU |YHUODSSQLQJ

(81) /LNVRP IOHUD WLGLJDUH VWXGLHU YLVDGH HWW IUnJHIRUPXOlU HQ K|JUH JUDG DY RUR L GHQ VWDPPDQGH JUXSSHQ 6RP GLVNXWHUDWVKlURYDQNDQGHWWDUHVXOWDWYDUDHQVHNXQGlUHIIHNWDYWDOSUREOHPHW (WW LQWUHVVDQW UHVXOWDW YDU DWW VW\UNDQ KRV EOLQNUHIOH[HQ YLVDGH HWW VYDJW RPYlQW VDPEDQGPHGJUDGHQDYRURLGHQVWDPPDQGHJUXSSHQ'HWWDW\GHUSnDWWVW\UNDQDY EOLQNUHIOH[HQLQWHlUDQYlQGEDUVRPPnWWSnHWWRUROLJWWHPSHUDPHQW9LGDUHYLVDGH EOLQNUHIOH[HQV VW\UND EDUD HWW P\FNHW VYDJW VDPEDQG PHG VWDPQLQJHQV VYnULJKHWV JUDG 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJVYLVJHUGHQQDVWXGLH LQWHVW|GI|UDWWI|UK|MGQHXURPXVNXOlU UHDNWLYLWHW VNXOOH YDUD HWW W\SLVNW GUDJ KRV VWDPPDQGH SHUVRQHU lYHQ RP HWW VYDJW VDPEDQGNDQILQQDV .DOFLXP L UHODWLRQWLOOEOLQNUHIOH[HQV VW\UND6WXGLHQYLVDGHDWWVWDUNEOLQNUHIOH[ KDGH VDPEDQG PHG OnJ QLYn DY NDOFLXP L EORGHW EnGH KRV GH VWDPPDQGH RFK KRV NRQWUROOJUXSSHQ'HWWDlULQWHI|UYnQDQGHHIWHUVRPGHWlUYlONlQWDWWQHUYV\VWHPHWV UHWEDUKHW|NDUQlUQLYnQDYNDOFLXPVMXQNHUPHG|NDGULVNI|UNUDPSHU7RWDOWVHWW NXQGHVNLOOQDGHULNDOFLXPQLYnI|UNODUDXQJHIlUDYVNLOOQDGHUQDLEOLQNUHIOH[HQV VW\UNDLGHQQDVWXGLH .DOFLXPLUHODWLRQWLOORURRFKVWDPQLQJ'HWlUNlQWDWWOnJDQLYnHUDYNDOFLXP NDQJH|NDGWHQGHQVWLOORURRFKnQJHVW'HQVWDPPDQGHJUXSSHQKDGHQnJRWOlJUH JHQRPVQLWWOLJ QLYn DY NDOFLXP lQ NRQWUROOJUXSSHQ PHG HWW VYDJW VDPEDQG PHOODQ OnJWNDOFLXPRFKVYnUDUHVWDPQLQJ'HWlUP|MOLJWDWWOnJDQLYnHUDYNDOFLXPLEORGHW NDQI|UYlUUDVWDPQLQJ'HVVDUHVXOWDWEHK|YHUGRFNEHNUlIWDVDYIRUWVDWWDVWXGLHU 'UDJ DY $'+' L EDUQGRPHQ 0HG XWJnQJVSXQNW IUnQ HWW IUnJHIRUPXOlU XSSVNDWWDGHVJUDGHQ DY GUDJDY$'+' XQGHU EDUQGRPHQ GYV XSSPlUNVDPKHWV SUREOHP K\SHUDNWLYLWHW HWF

(82) 'HQ VWDPPDQGH JUXSSHQ YLVDGH L JHQRPVQLWW W\GOLJW K|JUHQLYnDYGUDJDY$'+'XQGHUEDUQGRPHQMlPI|UWPHGNRQWUROOJUXSSHQPHQL GHIOHVWDIDOOLQWHWLOOUlFNOLJWI|UDWWJHGLDJQRVHQ$'+''HVWDPPDQGHGHOWDJDUQD YDU JDQVND MlPW I|UGHODGH Sn GHQQD VNDOD IUnQ DYVDNQDG DY GUDJ DY $'+' WLOO W\GOLJD$'+'GUDJ'HWPHVWW\SLVNDGUDJHWKRVVWDPPDQGHGHOWDJDUHPHGGUDJDY $'+'XQGHUEDUQGRPHQYDUXSSPlUNVDPKHWVSUREOHPRFKGDJGU|PPDQGH 'UDJ DY $'+' L EDUQGRPHQ L UHODWLRQ WLOO lUIWOLJKHW RFK QHXURORJLVNDVNDGRU (WW LQWUHVVDQW P|QVWHU YLVDV RP GHQ VWDPPDQGH JUXSSHQ GHODV L WYn KDOYRU PHG VWDUND UHVSHNWLYH VYDJD GUDJ DY $'+' , JUXSSHQ PHG UHODWLYW VWDUND GUDJ DY $'+'UDSSRUWHUDGHGHIOHVWDGHOWDJDUHLQGLNDWLRQHUSnP|MOLJDQHXURORJLVNDVNDGRU I|UH VWDPQLQJHQ E|UMDGH PHQ IlUUH UDSSRUWHUDGH VWDPPDQGH VOlNWLQJDU 'HQ YDQOLJDVWH UDSSRUWHUDGH LQFLGHQWHQ YDU VNDOOVNDGD W\S KMlUQVNDNQLQJ OHGDQGH WLOO VMXNKXVYnUGHOOHU PHGYHWVO|VKHW

(83) I|UORVVQLQJVNRPSOLNDWLRQHUHOOHUI|UWLGLJI|GVHO . . [YLL.

(84) 'HWWDlULOLQMHPHGSXEOLFHUDGHVWXGLHUVRPIXQQLW|NDGULVNI|U$'+'HIWHUGHQQD W\S DY KlQGHOVHU 7YlUWRP UDSSRUWHUDGH GH IOHVWD SHUVRQHUQD L JUXSSHQ PHG VYDJD GUDJDY$'+'PLQVWHQVWDPPDQGHVOlNWQLQJPHQInUDSSRUWHUDGHLQGLNDWLRQHURP QHXURORJLVNVNDGDI|UHGHWDWWVWDPQLQJHQE|UMDGH 1HXURORJLVND VNDGRU RFK GUDJ DY $'+' NDQ lYHQ KD VDPEDQG PHG I|UK|MGD QLYnHU DY RUR RFK nQJHVW 5HVXOWDWHW DY GHQQD VWXGLH YLVDGH HQ VYDJ WHQGHQV WLOO K|JUHQLYnDYRURKRVGHOWDJDUHPHGGUDJDY$'+' 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJVYLV SHNDU UHVXOWDWHW Sn DWW IDOO PHG lUIWOLJW EHWLQJDG EHVWnHQGH VWDPQLQJYDQOLJHQLQWHXSSYLVDUGUDJDY$'+'XQGHUEDUQGRPHQ'lUHPRWWHQGHUDU IDOODYVWDPQLQJWLOOI|OMGDYQHXURORJLVNDVNDGRUDWWXSSYLVDI|UK|MGD$'+'GUDJ VlUVNLOWXSSPlUNVDPKHWVSUREOHPGRFNLGHIOHVWDIDOOLQWHLWLOOUlFNOLJRPIDWWQLQJI|U DWWJHGLDJQRVHQ$'+' ) 'LVNXVVLRQ 1HXURORJLVND VNDGRU RFK EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD 6NDOOVNDGRU RFK I|UORVVQLQJV NRPSOLNDWLRQHUNDQ|NDULVNHQI|UVWDPQLQJ'HWlUP|MOLJWDWWGHVVDVNDGRUIUDPI|U DOOW lU NRSSODGH WLOO EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD 1lU GHW JlOOHU KMlUQVNDNQLQJ YHUNDU GHQ FHQWUDODPHNDQLVPHQVRPRUVDNDUPHGYHWVO|VKHWYDUDHQURWDWLRQVNUDIWPHGFHQWUXP L GHQ |YUH GHOHQ DY KMlUQVWDPPHQ 'HWWD NDQ UHVXOWHUD L GLIIXVD VNDGRU KRV QHUY EDQRUQD L GHQQD UHJLRQ VRP LQNOXGHUDU EDVDOD JDQJOLHUQDV EDQRU RFK GRSDPLQ V\VWHPHW 1lU GHW JlOOHUI|UORVVQLQJVNRPSOLNDWLRQHURFKI|UWLGLJI|GVHONDQEDVDOD JDQJOLHUQD YDUD VlUVNLOW VnUEDUD PHG ULVN I|U GLIIXV I|UOXVW DY QHUYFHOOHU RFK I|U lQGULQJDUKRVVLJQDOVXEVWDQVV\VWHPHQ *HQHWLN RFKVWDPQLQJ 3XEOLFHUDGHGDWDW\GHU SnDWWIOHUD ROLNDJHQHUNDQELGUD WLOO |NDG ULVN I|U VWDPQLQJ 'HW lU WlQNEDUW DWW GH IOHVWD DY GHVVD JHQHU LQWH lU VSHFLILNW NRSSODGH WLOO VWDPQLQJ XWDQ LVWlOOHW lU YDULDQWHU LQRP GHQ QRUPDOD JHQHWLVNDYDULDWLRQHQ'HWWDLQQHElUDWWJHQHWLVNWEHWLQJDGVWDPQLQJNDQXSSVWnlYHQ XWDQVWDPPDQGHVOlNWLQJDURPYLVVDJHQHUUnNDUVDPPDQIDOODKRVHQYLVVLQGLYLG, DUWLNHO9DUJXPHQWHUDVI|UDWWHWWP|MOLJWJHQHWLVNWGUDJEDNRPVWDPQLQJlUHQK|J QLYnDYGRSDPLQUHFHSWRUHUW\S'LGHQPRWRULVNDGHOHQDYEDVDODJDQJOLHUQD. [YLLL.

(85) 6800$5< $ 0DLQSRLQWVRIWKHWKHVLVLQEULHI 6XJJHVWHGWKHRU\RIVWXWWHULQJ7KHEUDLQKDVWZRSDUDOOHOV\VWHPVIRUWLPLQJRI WKHV\OODEOHVDQGVRXQGVLQVSHHFKWKHPHGLDODQGWKHODWHUDOV\VWHP6WXWWHULQJ LV UHODWHG WR WKH PHGLDO V\VWHP ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH EDVDO JDQJOLD VWUXFWXUHVLQ WKH PLGGOH RI WKH EUDLQ LQYROYHG LQ DXWRPDWL]DWLRQ RI YDULRXV EHKDYLRUV

(86) 7KH PDLQ SUREOHP LV SURSRVHG WR EHLPSDLUHGJRVLJQDOVIRU WKH V\OODEOHVDQGWKH VRXQGV LQ VSRQWDQHRXV VSHHFK ,W LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW XQGHU VRPH FRQGLWLRQV WKH VSHHFK WLPLQJ LV VKLIWHG WR WKH ODWHUDO V\VWHP WKHUHE\ PDNLQJ VSHHFK IOXHQW RU UHGXFLQJVWXWWHULQJ D

(87) ZKHQVSHHFKLVOLQNHGWRVHQVRU\LQSXWDVGXULQJFKRUDO UHDGLQJ RU PHWURQRPH SDFHG VSHHFK E

(88) ZKHQ VRPH DVSHFW RI VSHHFK LV FRQWUROOHG XVLQJ D UDLVHG OHYHO RI DWWHQWLRQ DV GXULQJ LPLWDWLRQ RI D GLDOHFW H[DJJHUDWHGUK\WKPRUUHGXFHGVSHHFKUDWHDQG F

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

(91) 7KH GLVRUGHU PD\ EH KLGGHQ LI WKH SHUVRQ PDQDJHV WR XVH FRQVFLRXVVWUDWHJLHVWRDYRLGGLVSOD\RIV\PSWRPV 7KH V\PSWRPV DUH W\SLFDOO\ DEVHQW GXULQJ VLQJLQJ FKRUXV VSHHFKRUSDFHG PHWURQRPH

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

(95) DQG WKHODWHUDO7KHPDLQSDUWVRIWKHODWHUDOV\VWHPDUHWKHODWHUDOSUHPRWRUFRUWH[DQG WKH FHUHEHOOXP :KHQ WKH VSHHFK FRQWURO LV VKLIWHG IURP WKH PHGLDO WR WKH ODWHUDO V\VWHPVWXWWHULQJLVDEVHQWRUUHGXFHG $FFRUGLQJWRWKLVPRGHOERWKWKHVHV\VWHPVDUHDEOHWRFRQWUROWKHWLPLQJRIWKH VSHHFKVHTXHQFHEXWZLWKVRPHOLPLWDWLRQV,QVSRQWDQHRXVVSHHFKWKDWLVLQWHQGHG 7KLVKDVEHHQVXJJHVWHGSUHYLRXVO\E\$5%UDXQDQGFRZRUNHUV

(96) 7KHGXDOSUHPRWRUV\VWHPVK\SRWKHVLVIRUPXODWHGE\**ROGEHUJ

(97) . . . [[L.

(98) WR FRQYH\ D PHVVDJH DQG WKDW LV EDVHG RQ DQ XUJH WR FRPPXQLFDWH WKH FRQWURO RI WLPLQJ LV QRUPDOO\ FKDQQHOHG WKURXJK WKH PHGLDO V\VWHP ,Q FRQWUDVW ZKHQ WKH WLPLQJ RI VSHHFK VHJPHQWV LV OLQNHG WR H[WHUQDO VWLPXOL OLNH D PHWURQRPH RU WKH YRLFH RI DQRWKHU SHUVRQ LQ FKRUXV UHDGLQJ

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

(101) WLPH SUHVVXUH SUHYLRXV QHJDWLYHH[SHULHQFHRIFHUWDLQVLWXDWLRQVDQGWKHJHQHUDOSK\VLRORJLFDOVWDWH KDYLQJ [[LL.

(102) DFROGHWF

(103) $FRQFOXVLRQEDVHGRQWKLVUHDVRQLQJLVWKDWWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOVWDWHRID SHUVRQZKRVWXWWHUVFDQQRWEHGHGXFHGIURPWKHREVHUYHGOHYHORIVWXWWHULQJ $FFHVVRU\PRYHPHQWV,QVRPHFDVHVWKHPRPHQWVRIVWXWWHULQJDUHDFFRPSDQLHG E\ LQYROXQWDU\ PRYHPHQW DQG LQFUHDVHG PXVFXODU WHQVLRQ 7KHVH PRYHPHQWV KDYH RIWHQ EHHQ UHJDUGHG DV VHFRQGDU\ OHDUQHG EHKDYLRUV ZKLFK LQLWLDOO\ VHUYHG WR VXSSRUW LQLWLDWLRQ RI VSHHFK ,Q WKLV WKHVLV LW LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKLV VXSHUIOXRXV PXVFXODU DFWLYDWLRQ PD\ EH UHJDUGHG DV D W\SH RI G\VWRQLD GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG WR WKH QHXURORJLFDO FDXVH RI VWXWWHULQJ 7KH WHUP G\VWRQLD VLJQLILHV PRWRU V\PSWRPV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ LQYROXQWDU\ PXVFXODU FRQWUDFWLRQV RIWHQ ZLWK VSUHDGLQJ RI FRQWUDFWLRQVWRDGMDFHQWPXVFOHV'\VWRQLDFDQDIIHFWDOOSDUWVRIWKHERG\LVRIWHQ OLPLWHG WR KLJKO\ DXWRPDWHG VHTXHQWLDO PRWRU WDVNV OLNH ZULWLQJ RU SOD\LQJ DQ LQVWUXPHQW

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

(105) 7KUHHUHSRUWVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOVWXGLHVDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKLV WKHVLVDQGWZRZLOOEHUHSRUWHGODWHU DQDO\VLVRIVSHHFKV\PSWRPVDQGRQHVWXG\RI WKHLQIOXHQFHRIKHDULQJRQVSHHFK

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

(107) DQGE\09LFWRUDQG$+5RSSHU

(108) . . . [[LLL.

(109) GLGQRWVXSSRUWWKHSUHYLRXVUHSRUWRIDUHODWLRQEHWZHHQORZEORRGOHYHORIFRSSHU DQGVWXWWHULQJ ) 3DSHU,96WXWWHULQJDQGWKHDELOLW\WRLQKLELWVRXQGV 7KHDXWRPDWLFDELOLW\RIWKHEUDLQWRLQKLELWSURFHVVLQJRIVRPHGLVWXUELQJVRXQGV FDQ EH DVVHVVHG E\ D PHWKRG FDOOHG VWDUWOH SUHSXOVH LQKLELWLRQ $ EOLQN UHIOH[ LV HOLFLWHGDVDUHVSRQVHWRDVXGGHQORXGQRLVHDQGWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHEOLQNUHIOH[ WKHVWDUWOHUHIOH[

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

(111) UHSRUWHGRQDYHUDJH DQ VWURQJHU VWDUWOH UHIOH[ LQ VWXWWHULQJ DGXOWV WKDQ LQ WKH FRQWURO JURXS DQG LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKLVWUDLW ZDVUHODWHGWRDQHUYRXVWHPSHUDPHQW$OVRRWKHUVWXGLHV KDYH UHSRUWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ HOHYDWHG OHYHOV RI WUDLW DQ[LHW\ LQ VWXWWHULQJ DGXOWV +RZHYHU D UHYLHZ RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKLV HOHYDWHG OHYHO LV OLPLWHG WR VRFLDOVLWXDWLRQVLQYROYLQJVSHHFKDQGWKDWWKHDQ[LHW\PDLQO\LVDVHFRQGDU\HIIHFW RIWKHVSHHFKGLIILFXOWLHV²QRWDFRQVWLWXWLRQDOWUDLW 7HPSHUDPHQW LQ VWXWWHULQJ FKLOGUHQ 6WXGLHV RI WKH WHPSHUDPHQW RI VWXWWHULQJ FKLOGUHQKDYH\LHOGHGPL[HGDQGFRQWUDGLFWRU\UHVXOWV2QHSRVVLEOHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI DYDLODEOH GDWD LV WKDW WKH WHPSHUDPHQW RI VWXWWHULQJ FKLOGUHQ FDQ EH GHVFULEHG DV D [[LY.

(112) FRQWLQXXPZLWKWZRSROHV

(113) &KLOGUHQZKRDUHZHOODGMXVWHGKDYLQJJRRGVNLOOVRI FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZLWK ODQJXDJH DELOLWLHV WKDW DUH ZHOO GHYHORSHG DQG VRPHWLPHV SUHFRFLRXV DQG EHLQJ HDV\ FKLOGUHQ

(114) &KLOGUHQ ZKR KDYH WUDLWV RI DWWHQWLRQ GHILFLW K\SHUDFWLYLW\ GLVRUGHU $'+'

(115) VKRZLQJ H[FHVVLYH PRWRU DFWLYLW\ LPSXOVLYHQHVVLQDWWHQWLRQSUREOHPVRIOHDUQLQJDQGGHOD\HGPRWRUGHYHORSPHQW ) 5HVXOWV 5HDFWLYLW\DQGDQ[LHW\,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHSUHYLRXVVWXG\RIVWDUWOHDQGVWXWWHULQJ WKLV VWXG\ GLG QRW ILQG D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ VWDUWOH UHDFWLYLW\ EHWZHHQWKHVWXWWHULQJDGXOWVDQGWKHFRQWUROJURXS RQDYHUDJHKLJKHUDYHUDJH VWDUWOHDPSOLWXGHLQWKHVWXWWHULQJJURXSEXWZLWKODUJHRYHUODS

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

No results found