451. Los Angeles, Colorado River water forecast committee, April 16, 1945 (folder 1 of 2)

(1)

• -7: 7" .i'-‘111111111W1111•Pwror...----.

U. S. Department

of Commerce

WEATHER BUFtF AU

45/

....weruswes.t.t...00.rormostam,-4 owshai, AGRICULTURAL COLLEGE, COOPERATIVE OBSERVER, FORT COLLINS, COLOnADO.

\--der ic

fee.

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE Us5,4 AVOIty PAYMENT OF POSTA(' $300.

(2)

• COLORADO RIVER WATER FORECAST COMMITTEE

April 16, 1945

9:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M.

MORNING SESSION

The meeting was called to order and presided over

by the Chairman, Mr. Ralph L. Parshall, Senior Irrigation

Engineer, Division of Irrigation, S.C.S., Fort Collins,

Colorado.

(Verbatim Record Follows)

Chairman: Come to order please, gentlemen. As was

announced in our Wain program, we have a number of subjects

for consideration. Therefore, it is best that we get under

way as quickly gas possible after nine o'clock, in order that

we may haveAtime to cover the assigned subjects. This is our

first meeting of the Colorado River Water Forecast Committee.

It has been a yew great pleasure on my part to organize this

s

94***aft:fy I'm ft, Witco, f°

e

meeting and Me

very fine response to

ear

letters sent out ta

#

A

+11A e

I A y,

movidde participation in the program isovery gratifying, -az

yee.knew.

1 After,-41erles-tring—the-yery-great, importance of snow and

Iffej-joarl

e-thaying-presented-irr -a few- minutes a paper by Dr.

:

J. G. WiIm, vb.° is the Senior Silvieulturist of-the U. S.

_orest ,and Range Experiment-atation of Colorado State College.

This paper has to do with the effect of water runoff, as

(3)

yen A.44_,

,.e-0-14A,LLmt,

(4)

2

•

• /1100:

,

A 4%

After I;_-

Ze

the statement on the back of the

pro-gram, I thought I was a little conservative in my estimate

that at least seventy-five per cent of the water in this

stream is directly from snow. In reading Dr. Wilm's paper,

I found that he had crowded that estimate up to ninety per

CO

s

-r cipvvi „\145-.440.4.

cen

Jitiniontliallikr that all of us actually ieaz and

ap-preciate what the snow means to the prosperity of our Western

C010P0.A.0

_cmAt

country. We can well imagine that if

nib

the riverwere to

+

be ceo(f.'eht,41 44.

sue., ii ck ,

_i

it would bgnnay-thea to realize the seriousness of

Wi19111Tisgoeb

ar-ftg- ,VMed7lity=tht- atpr.

,

hat ai---thpis

de--Ole met-41,0'4

s

rom. Co*V#14

CA 414

+fie

pends upon gm,

wemttaMenalftsiggimmrt importance °fling...Ms

/\

meetingssuch as this, where we can

.u6kmovel discuss 4mmissimom1ra.

fe

late&

_tkiith

hbrac

of

.45ctri

AWAR these various problems games* a better understanding of

a

what we are trying to do

)

perhaps, we-eaft-ffbach.

rech;liA

the point where

tk,'111 t,c,/‘.te

Yoe

•t,„1,

te ie

we

-:.

-

-blems solved.

•101--01,

01 For the prosperity of the West, these problems concern

Diterirciated phase

,

s

our Committee. They have a number of phases --,

from

tUe-stanti-fo

a

VI ern

I wo. to 1441

;

economicengineering;

meteorology; forestrytirrlgationt) agriculture land many other id:01W

c vap

bort

;3 tt r' fibq r

1

We are concerned from tile economic s

tandpointimilk 4147

planning

c44studying the water supply. From the irrigation

standpoint our prime purpose is to forecast

Or to predict the

water supply. For agriculture, we must predict sufficiently

in advance of the season to permiAhe best=r

igignprograms

er\

for the farmers. Then, we have the relation of snow and water

from the engineering standpoint; the construction of great

works, the protection of those works, and of course, the

(5)

114 44,t1 5/14, 0124 C

4,4

"

I

"I_J--e-J_ • "-a" 01,14.4 *EL

2,44a44it_el_

,

„zucs_vt,i.14

. cAr-ar-4.0.(6)

-tArb"-e-q, (-60-4A FO't.g ek/it

(6)

3

• and irrigation supplies.

("\424 "4":*

m teorglogy

From the

stand-ct

point of irrigation,,yezmint the dependence of water supplies

for irrigating

r*.

agricultural

c'm

e.mt,t fyel.-4114. -Ata ell

From the theoretical

crop production and its related

' 43 t.A.rt,

...•...----,

-

,

,....,D 6

row,* ,f,vi4

we have cons

iderationvt

o;uni

l

lit

t

h,

6 b)vvki

iti these different fields.

So now, this morning, we are concerned with all these

various subjects which we have indicated in the program. If

4-MAJ. crt 'CI 4.

you have not received a program, yeu—slae,

'

'4

1114---eome-4o—the---clesk

t,< t _ct

t-ohe. Before I forget it, I would like to mention

4h (

I am very pleased to find so many present at

A

our first endeavalit.

• _I ₀

/2=4:

4A.4411

1 We are most gratef

to you for the assistance

-Ca

la

this program,and for all the work entailed in preparing the

papers

I now wish to introduce Mr. W. W. McLaughlin, Chief of

e

14 the Division of Irrigation,

,sit Berkeley, California -

. Mr.

McLaughlin's subject is the Objective and Scope of the Snow

Survey Program. Mr. McLaughlin.

Mr. McLaughlin: Mr. Chairman, and gentlemen. I

re-ceived notice a couple of days ago that I was on this program.

Between fighting for reservations - hotel, railroad and others

law% 6k. Vc

el.- cx*

WO

trying to think of a few things I might say4 it has been

ao.n.

rather a difficult task. I mat quite pleased that the length

‘11

of my time 40611 been cut into because of starting late. That

(7)

4

• This is the question of snow surveying and

forecast-ing of water supplies. Possibly we had better define what we

mean by snow surveying. It is, in fact, the measurement of

the water stored in the mountains in the form of snow and ice.

44am.41.

When we realize that snow may plaUh a density 004811114ammemmt,

to thirty-fiv or forty per cent, we can see why the Department

CA .14

felt a need

a measure

which we can rely. For

that reason, we defined the water content.

We use these data for the purpose of forecasting the

Jor.

runoff, or

GOV

yield, of water that we can expect from that

snow. We do not attempt to predict the spring

or the

.4,11

we assume

summer rainfall. In forecasting the summer

we will experience a normal season. Now, what a normal season

is, you know as well as I, and none of us understands it

perfect-ly. When I think of this forecas ing, I am put in mind of the

physician and our relation to him. When we are well and

feel-ing fine, we don't care where he is or what he's dofeel-ing. So it

is with water supply. When we have years of drought, or years

CA !'4-.

or flood, our telephone rings continuouslyori4h people wanting

*4Jak.

I\

to know 4MM* the water outlook

.)

None of us, I'm sure, will forget Pearl Harbor - how

itt.“

cvA

d co-..6(,„4

the surprise attack of the Japs las our fleet essmposo the

emis-saries of peace were in Washington talking peace. The attack

was a surprise and we were totally unprepared; caught

flat-footed, without forewarning of the attack. We,didn't know

what to expect next.

tA4tPusi--40 LAPe /4^'Ytkv.I.i.t t r L144.

AW04 the way the war came, so4hoMs,MMMOMMOw the element

(8)

5.

•

• who may have come from the intermountain country,

or areas

other than California, will recall the drought of 1934 and

-CA)

1936

the most serious drought inthe history of man in

1‹m

prtatAA,Z31.4ter.,„ vvet

.

,

'34,

this country.

illnet

drought extended- pretty well up to 1940.

A

There were about three-fourths of a million head of livestock

shipped out of the

of North Dakota during timbals* drought

41134

year because there was no pasture and the hay stacks had

dis-A

ki

'1 A.

1 1414

appeared. Here again we

a the element of surprise)

&wit-6a LA-IvivoiatAciLlIVA.A4 4

thAtte:Ietnent,,a.,Ampreparedti

This occurred pretty much all over the United States,

with the exception of one or,.tw9 states. Utah, for instance,

had no,surveyikand three months before the drought occurred,

the Governor of Utah called a conference, at which Dean Clyde,

and I and many others were present. Committees were set up to

form a campaign of defense and one of offense to combat the

effects of the drought in the Southwest Pacific.

We weren't going to "make" rain. We didn't think of

that. We were going to tap the heretofore unused or

undevelop-ed supplies of water. Dean Clyde and I and others there fought

the battle, when it was proposed that the Governor declare an

emergency and take over all the water supplies of the State.

That was done 11600041 and the water was distributed. What water

there

In Utah, we had warning of what was to come.

defense- we e not

was, we distributed for family planting and

sustenance.

We

Anaproms*74. tA--,

-1H44.4‘

caught entirely unprepared. Aom-A_

States they were not prepared and thay'suffeied greatly.

In many

nvvi

In connection with

agriculture, LU

the planting of

.90ittcei

crops, the knowledge of the Water supply that is to prevail

(9)

6

•

• during the coming year will indicate to us what proportion of

earlymm.40110Mg and late-maturing crops can,be matured with the

water that will be available,A This will result in a saving of

money expended for seed, as well as for labor. The bank

ac-count of the farmer will experience a saving when we have this

prewarning.O-LemAN

Now, to summarize very briefly what has been said:

We had, in the case of Pearl Harbor, the element of surprise

Pl-art4"..

no forewarning. In the cas of Utah,

-temaisirmegieepit, we had

warning. Te prepared a defense and the damage was much less

tAw14

than it would have otherwisebeern. In the case of Pearl

Har-bor it was almost a killing blow to our fleet. Two years ago

this spring, our snow surveys in Idaho indicated that the Boise

a.

/A411_

Valley was in for flood. The prospects indicated.thiet hazard

A

very pronouncedly. The Governor called a group together and

prepared a defense:defining the river channels. toftlaway,

(x.„t,

.e.,0164. Otit

4 ,..,,

o4A7.4.4.

J

b

the flood came and the defense that was prepared help

4 4-f-w'

.#110-14* fighowi&

'the...41anatike-rfTentz-running4tdrols., Here again, we had warning. 7e

01 knew what to expect. We knew the enemy's tricks and we knew

e

when

IL

would strike.

uJu

I think I can say that the objective of snow surveys

ertr.-K 4Av t14

440oppleimmeato: (1) A pre-knowledge of

mar

2) an opportunity to prepare a defense

against that; (3) 4011 an indication of time:6 <in

fore-Ltr1-7 LLwt..4,

important to som,414WWW agri- L

tAAA.114

4.4044-4,RA*tc,44f.JaAv4

culture, forestry, imaustry,Amileim.610AMMigerdiag, the fisherman,

the duck hunter, the

camper 5444466' everyone vt,:-.mm

who uses

/ 4044

water. I think that takeet in all of us.

A

L

'OWAAjil 640-44Retalve.

casting our water supplies,

<=c

(10)

•

• ILg ir

4 Los Angeles amby is vitally interested in these snow

j..‘

surveys'l= vitally interested in what to expect in the way of

,

vvo

water. Likewise the ower companies

..v

41*Wrilort-water..'

Cooten"....evir,„4" e!..4-06,A J'et-tork CA-,4

terestps.maie-vitakar-eoncerne4044a0tbem;out-c,

Aoto eCt.:44

exteA„,".,

)

In the Portland area a couple of years ago, the outlook

4AI:rut el+.

was for a very dry year. The power companies put:4n half a

aart

k/ 21

others wanted to rtg4-41*4

million dollars worth of coal for their standby plants. Our

6°14-4

prediction

A

wasnot entirely .correct.A AMMEd a lot of rain in

4.016.1 „„..t,„„,c,

'444,444:orts.141 cpyvtI LA,

c. (y-t.

the spring.

c.•-.1.464.10

A'\42. Aft

e.4

lq

year

.

-t

ziNA 4-,16- --4-±A-Pv'AACtI3 tLñJ.

However, the companies told us that they would rather have had

that coal in storage and not need it, than to have not had it

and then need it. iike-client,t-know-whart-the-rainfall would be%

I think you might be interested in a brief picture

Lotyjk

of the accomplishments

of our snow survey's, in the West. In

1935, the Federal Congress provided for snow surveying and

irrigation water supply forecasting. That duty was assigned

L.415,

to the Division of Irrigation,"Department of Agriculture. -We

(044

were directed to coordinate the snow surveys in

,the West di to

.-61rtz,4L, L!rcrl- 41.44Attt-41 •-rv-al" di7E0'-"Vi

but not to take-care.logolgthe

,

memktko

f

LeV.C.'1,/tria

Our policy is to be helpful to the States and not to

supersede them in any way. As a result,-In-thet-the

rtj-tkji,44

.

•Ltek.A4VVL4J4J ALtt<1..“ AegiciA.4, 4jL A cx,ut t4AL

,the--p&otr--eecsesr-41ae-wosk-laae-Aaeerrf-iaed.. It is

inter-changeable, not only in this country, but with Canada as

"d-Z4ILA--+‘""4:114. 01.4"4,-1 tth:41- p,ot /at e_tiet

twelve wo_limatimitim fifteen thousand individual snow

measurements mademmilw

.)\

41V14 "LP #4.41‘,VrikA•A41 ,t41.4frite:

about a thousand people

ell.

itAiuet, cuLtAit CA.,40"44,

(11)

8

cta

about twenty-seven, etc.

(il=e are interested in his

aoc1 1 LLD La% "vvt-e-tzt(2._ .tx\1A-4.4;Ave. &1:44 a"4 t"4" '444

work

imAimasolootie.

(

-Instead

pecr9as-CCAA.

e 4.-tAnekk

ing, the number of cooperators tt increasing.

tr3fAx--We do not have,

:imst,

nor

/L.

1,4a ty.t.tL

do we have all of the equipment we need., We are fighting

Ltei4

for a release of aluminum. We are buying snowmobiles,- tractor

ttairk,41.1. 45,1

and airplane typeS-

)

.

id.t4.0.

4,

ekL.+Lah.

helpsbecause it

asktt. reducesthe labOr and time required. We

• assisting in making these mqasurements,eme,144,,,t. This

pro-gram is highly cooperative. ,There are probably from one

hun-,ireLra...4,,,--

_-t

dred to one hundred and twe t

ive agencies

.-*

atiOn-me twenty

-ei ht; in Oregon,

tAtekp

en- hts. In Colorado there are

CA.".

Lem\

%.) 144141041.t L41,444.44 wA^AL A A a effixtio 44.4-144-4mi .44/-4k

-beetepAmete

'Progress and na.will make still more

gaftEssw.

We

ver

1,1_421,L,

,d..4b.

,

:ifr,aktiki_tleck.,GA-A-**ti

ma...tell the peoPie in Western Canada, in these Western United

States and on down to Mexico, about what water they will have

during the ensuing year for irrigation and other purposes.

There is much research work tha .needs to be done.

tk

‘

d( '

Just taking a measurement of the snowA d water content is

easy, but when you get to forecasting the amount of runoff

that will occur and the many other underlying factors that

will change the amount of runoff, you realize the problem is

044 1r-AltiNA4.-45

not so simple.A at is the condition of the earth mantle

on the watershed? Hg

deep is it? Haw wet or dry is it?

ii,--

a6i,A.A,t,

el.4.,--vv-, SeA.4 ,,veue.R.,S 7•0_,"e1.4rtAr

t104t" 41C- *IAA'

Li transportation how much witim-is going to be held? What

.421,01-414 '"ILLI CAPY1 ekrt:4"04 04A,Pi.;,04

.66evt.:4AtAAA

Index is the snowiAor spring

ern

It

the watershed?

Take the Humboldt River.

silirin IIIMMOWNIAMit

Nevada

,,

.

(12)

9

•

3 ,14.7(.4.44.44-rather broad, flat valley and has an immense amount

ofkstor-age. We have here the question of how long does 14 take that

/-4,4,c1404.".2,

abt

water to drain out.

II

din ibettsaaatioem-ereeemetroftevenifereg.

tut

kmwe volcanic areas wh re we vise the snowfall cf two years agoAwAtA4

v.11

tANg ,A...-44„

ctX.4.44N 'e ,-,, i ,,, ' -,,,---

3 Mis water contett,'t

of one year ago and that of ti

yee 1 cuic*Kik

forecasting the water supply of this year. There are a lot

\-4

,

et. sto

,

—

A4LA

of caverns in the lava and it takes Isci;

—"

Adme for that water to

A.

drain out

its) 1.4

.

4-4)

'"

44-,,,,, 1-4-1

"6"

-k

s'il'r"aa 644#41j* i

Gtetos t% ir"ti' ii-4.4.0 41,1010,,^^^t :14,00011041-LotkoteM 7..1,1Arid0

There

aaell-werk;-we..peed. Aimbereibbett ,..4.

:

as soon as thingSquiet down, we will be able to get laba=kt.'

The scope of our wo t

r:17-the entire West.

We have now pretty

well established the snow courpes on the major streams, and on

tock""

A

streams. Wisminfe ult1mately-4p take in the minor

c.0

4 0 t,

_Ao4-0-1₁_/₁₄

1 LAild

streams,

VIIMMOWIft agriculture and industry.

I have attempted only to give you a brief outline of

the scope of our snow survey work. If there are no questions,

that is all I have to eay

**1L44t46c-,

Chairman: Our next subject has to do with the urgency

of irrigation water supply forecasts. The reason for choosing

this was to let you know that very shortly after the first of

January we began to get letters and calls wanting to know what

the water supply is going to be for the coming season. That

is prior to any of our snow surveys. For some time back, I

b4,1

have been tdgg to find the correlation between the amount

of water that comes down from the mountains in the fall, and

A

the amount of water that might be expected the following

sum-mer.

In mentioning this subject to many of my friends, I

haven't been very much encouraged. Mapie they think that

the secondary

(13)

10 anyone who

Awould. set up a relation puch as t,

might not be

0•\2evi aat oCko, 4t---,

-u---trt.„*.t.iv-D

bgti

(AAA.

r

altogether.

I think that there is something to Mt

,

.

tiom).014

:A

tkAAJA7 14.AL(Awu

!

it is not

ammo...6n on hundred per cent.cLOti ;

intended for the purpose of

Ihe trendot LL42A

5N4

0A

i "Wfus4 4/4 i.4.

ti A .

&A*44.urA-L

N"4174r--6 see

behind the curtain we would be in

.i."0:4•411eV1"tdea'eli

1.74±"`""...IL

0

`1•A"..04 4-AAIL C-1344

'414/

440,4A-Pl.,14*-4

,

L.ct

4.Aevittorriste,

":41 ‘1041

-41

"

44°

rti.4 4:11

,1

bket

--4z_c

0L.1.7 IF_

D

CLAAJ°Ke•t-e

UOLA,

,

1 -a

fu&4f‘d

t,t,Lbe

Cittel

CA-A

A:Wn.e11 cLL

C-qQL

1/2- 1 47.*Le LAA--e2

4.7 )

_.)

+54„L,

ot.r4tec4

have worked with a number of streams in COlOraClU evviii

*L4 1•••:••,etdJw

Some of tima were to my way of thinking, more or less sign

(1

A.A.AL biLA, vselaaWt--4

• vt.

fic

ant

A *Iiiia.awastssawsoricymakes.ssitediewiroloo4.41tearreitvietn

ortAikkIA,

k-g.

"krC't'S C.4"%..titkA"LaW) penta"nes.A.N.G,4

I want to immust to you this morning kmObswilemmitib.the Animas

River iniaouthwestern Colorado,A,tributary to the San Juan,

_JtAchs_in tams_ls.the main tributary of the Colorado River.

IMMO

<9". i:QAA --wtAA

1. .btLcsi

ava-,44_ett, (?..4.t)-4--u -0

41 4ft.c

#

I

ir

totia4eza

/c?.27 t41744 v%441AA

o‘mtLern

t4,14,4 4.-ati,44ztat ‘-4471- 41‘4.

4 4,v04R4.444.

ft

-L1-.

_{4) u-ta-viALt cio2 bezka tt}

(14)

4

Vtit

I

/1evt-a-w4d0

GEGLub

1 144,-1)e44

,

444. Ana ho-Lti-A

,

141-4A)

0 .6

44(zsAikAAAA

6 alttit.eA.vt ey.

)

/4.(4

,

%-14 4/s

vz

t4to4.14

rfLia..

2.42. ut)-1..e. 4,4

svvt

..Lir .64n.

Ve

GA;a1 ct

6 • j 1°Sot.toiLPt2 CAPVLStA

I

(ytl.:t .•f;

-

L*

eN A A

• In this

parti-cular case, it just happens to work out very nicely and is

suf-ficiently close to show you what we have been able to do for

this one stream.

t

iseatAA

otAiLfrwt.A.4

4,e, -atm

1.1st:74. eot

444.12 AA4_0-6

ra

00Vvy 46.4 C.4,r1 .0.4AAii/114-4/ oe-414.tfL

4110t04/. 1

CA.

'CraCk" 4 Vek •°*"4.."4Z °Vet(P ,

CO

etX0ft1

47tit

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4 ...,„44*A„,64/14/4

t

-t-t

CAILQ,s

ati&d(x)

r't-44.#Y?

LQ,(2cVtA,tr.v4

da

-tb,e±

tet_R. ;L

e

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c4,Afvu-ela

aJt

tL

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fl

-6D k‘vuL_L.,LLYIXLA

ti

e.

d

s

r\ a., ..okLek.cr.cA-wt.

7uLthAZ-v-g -ey-et-kr-e-e-AA

t

eQ

r

tiore:

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_{..1,,vdtk, 'L,}

_,

_{t *Le.}

_(dut.c,

`atr‘A.cev6ts:

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C.A,1•1

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k•:, 17L.

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Are there any questions or discussions?

Mr. Donald M. Baker: (Consulting Engineer, 108 West

Sixth Street, Los Angeles) You mentioned the fact that there k..tms

Ara

very decided deviation during the 1 30s. That was a dry

period.

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Dean Clyde: (Will dictate his remarks and forward

copy to the Chairman.)

Mr. McLaughlin: What proportion of the deviations

I*

t6

Are

greater, and what per

cent lee

less, than the forecasts?

Dean Clyde: As I scan through this, I see that most

of our forecasts have been less than the actual. I think it

(19)

15 +A:vs/L-1 , /\1252.itivvi

are apt to get.

"4.4A to,+.44.4. tiet

-err..LA4

b •

Mr. McLaughlin: Asgumla,mokim4.41MPICOMmmantabg on

normal stream flow would indicate normal precipitationpas

caused most of the disturbance.

Dean Clyde: That's right.

4 bstvAAV

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Dean Clyde: (Reads Dr. Wilm's paper)

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(

A•grt414/445 RtiPt ,L&

distinguished gentleman with us

today. He has traveled for six weeks by boat to get here. I

take pleasure in introducing Mr. William J. Jenkins, Director

of Agriculture,* Bombay Province, India.

(20)

Mr. Jenkins: Gentlemen: I am very appreciative of

the privilege of attending this meeting. I didn't expect

to

get down to thlngs so quickly. There haven't been any very

'

great snow% down in our country -2.4.A.m4A.c.A.-441.

_A

I

_{was particularly interested in the imilt paper,la}

.41140116. re have a ye/4 large tract of forest and we have the

LA)L-1,

erosion problemAiii is becoming a very serious one.. In o

ck4liAruted. 0,%-tek. ta.A.LLA

forests there is a certain amount of eubtiztaiiWevery

_three

to

_eolntAta",

_104.

hp five years -40V about thirty years and then is allowed to

revert back to the natural yields. Some have associated the

erosion with these small patches of cultivation. I would like

to know if there is a dense undergrowth*Vvlikx

itan. LA3 fl-t"""'

Pc446.4" r

Mr. George H. Cecil: (Conservation Department, Los

Angeles Chamber of Commerce.) I can answer that. No, there

isn't a dense undergrowth.

(frA.4411-421,

Mr. Jenkins: I can't say anything more. I'm rather

out of my realm. I would just like to say again that I am

very glad to be here, and I hope I will be allowed to continue

to sit in on this meeting.

Chairman: We are most happy t have you 4th us Mr.

t-NuAs...

ck

Jenkins trometide before we adjo

4.414,11%,Cevi e.?

40 ave

in mind,

oviA

1A4 CL441. C.We44

-inotUaL14.

AOMOMME somet

eb".001(04~

u

iatazzialikaiolimarbie time out

dtt4

c

rn,

redo. like to discuss

(44

14°64's

forecaAing for 1945.

Since

if,..4h,

3 t-o

A,,,Ai.A.17tt'Ag00,14,:tre.,.. 11

forecasting committee

41604Am. -‘4-‘4-4..r.v:i

7Y1-0.4-0/114,0,%

his afternoon, We are 440mildin along nicely,

tv.4,4.0 ,41-4A 1.2rt4,4

or a recess. (Ten-minute recess)

1-0Alt

(21)

GUOI

Chairman: Come to order pleasei4ent1emen;" Our time

_

has been spent so far this morning in gettin4the idea of

fore-casting for irrigatiom in mind

_{We will now divert our}

attent-ion to the matter of power. We have asked Mr. W. A. Lang, Engineer,

of-fitjtSe,

*aft Southern California Edison Company to present this subject

ta,

ift=the relation of the 1945 runoff in the Colorado Riverto power

planning. Mr. Lang's remarks will be followed by a discussion

by Mr. H. A. Lott, Southern

Cozzens, Los Angeles Bureau

stead of Mr. Jones.

Mr. Lazy: (Reads - no record made by reporter.)

Mr. Bradley Cozzens: (Reads - no record made by reporter.)

California Edison, and Mr. Bradley

of Power and Light/twill speak

in-Chairman: Those in snow and water survey work are always

looking for problems. Wben precipitation occurs in agreement,

,1*.w.,sw just woadaalmirithat-1100Mismewthere. There appears to be

010t. tt4ittrvy

quite a bit to

of finding out how much water is

going to be available to turn the wheels of industry.

Mr. H. A. Lott: After the paper by Mr. Lang and the

discussion by Mr. Cozzens, you may know that there isn't much

left for me to say. I thought you might be interested in the

rest of the Pacific Southwest, which includes most of California,

Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Kilowatt-hours

generat-ed in that area in a year's time have shown a remarkable advance

y 4e3 fai

in California. During the pastoes

11 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1944,

(22)

petwAgIvfrAc

roLAL4,L4A-4,0404tAta-tAptvitm.,4444,

,

Boulder4variestilliiiia poor water

yeariRMamiiiiNNOWOW---flgivir ditw

about four and one-half billion killowatt-hours,

_{good year}

Nthenowyoulzsva,

_{about six and one-half billion. In a good year,}

there is some additional water spilled. T

Vit-t41"1-44-or a good water year istir

_{to the West's}

util-e problutil-em of a poor

For instanceAa a goodAmmilmommr, all the utilities

using hydroelectric

_{hydroelectric means for generating power, a e still}

requir-ities.

, •

A

_ook.

ed to use about six or seven4diddit barrels of oils litsallinat; in

tYvt-i_f

a normal year, about thirteelletilliftweliallii ore, required,

tlAkt

totet.

and in a dry year it takes approximately nineteen MOM=

barrels..

e4v4bork*itv

So, the problem of weather is important. It is4*mpor4ant to know

if we will have a dry year or a wet one. If the latter is the

case, then how much:

44,1°

In Mr. Lang's paper the difference between figures which

L.44° 2,4frs-v44

11i

are given for the minimum and maxiMum which might be expected in

I ja

vytr

olived

44.244,

the Colorados

_{to,Lace Mead were, in round figures, about}

six million barrels of fuel oil

six million acre feet,t,

to displace that. jraterkotatirt

t(2/Li.,..scz.

six million barrels of fuel oil

could be divided between several utilities oolisminall Now,

dur-ing the war period, the fuel oil situation is critical. We will

still have it after the war

_{The electric and water}

people are the oil companies' best customers, but they would

probably tell you that the utilities are the most

unsatisfact-L.

ory customers.benause their demand is not uniform.citcA"

cev,

As Westerners, we are all quite optimistic and,

pos-sibly, a little inclined to disregard some of the warnings f,

tioo

that have comeA uring the war period,;%midist so many of our

evn

/1A-air"ko.r.4.11.

4

(23)

A

IN"L"Cjr:tsvelAtOtivtd— /(.1)^4

c

may beritical4tfter the war. If that is the case, we

1 9

will still have to program our fuel

quite effect1vely.6.-A- .000.0°'

2-eArK0471044-C,

4100=51hammar. The knowledge of water resources is going to

TeiA-4..1.„,r4t/v:^

(az a

Ilb

uitp an aid 1n :t

g.

4J2, ifie-tot."-44L . *p0,444M ettoh044 °OM fk, •

I jotted down a thing that might occur in the future

C4LAA..

of forecasting, when forecasts,assea be made ten per cent

ac-e‘

curate. Out of a ten million agre,:.

:

,

f

,

tItA yeig, the error might

at. ek 14446 ,

be one million acre-feet

A

Aillat would generate four hundred/m.00-4.4Am"

d4

kilowatt-hours,, posediegragar That would not be so much

or so bad a problem al qix millio barrels of oil.

(AAA"

1.40 4,(1

67 )-&-&0.

I

1i1

contributing,

alemmimil to your snow survey conference. I am sure that so far

as the Southern California Edison Company and I are concerned,

we wish you every success in the cause we are so vitally

in-Ov00.44.404A.0.441,0f

terestedjew We needle forebast of the Colorado River runoff

that approximates that in California. We know your problem is

broader because

because in California we get our flow

rain*

Mr. Bertram 8, Barnes: (Regional Engineer, 6th Region,

U. S. Weather Bureau) Mr. Lang brought up the question of

cor-relating records of runoff. I believe that is now being

undertaken in our Kansas City Office. The last I heard, they

were sending for all the records of the Lower Colorado River.

They are making a correlation of the type practiced in the

Bureau.

We have, for the past two years, made special

fore-casts for the Bureau of Reclamation for the Sacramento River.

These were on a somewhat similar procedure, but a more

per-manent one. Our correlations are mostly graphical, but

(24)

through-out, experimentally.

means, when we

attempt4a.corre-lation, that we run into some terrific figures. That is the

present order - that we carry the thing out mathematically from

start to finish.

The assumption that it varies from the minimum is not

nearly so erroneous, and is the best way to attempt such a

clarification. We have been starting our forecasts of the

rePort

-Sacramento River with a January BemsomM, which is largely a

guess, based upon the past twenty-five or thirty years' history.

In other words, we have a probable value, based on the little

information obtainable in January. We effect another, later

on, assuming the precipitation after January, and another value

that will be the highest value.

Our forecasts consist of three phases. The February

forecast pulls the two extremes a little closer

together. The

most probable figure bobbles up and down as the survey progresses.

We are now attempting this year to put out five surveys instead

00,4:444

of three for each one of those. The lowest figure is the one vottc

that the odds are thirty to one that it will be exceeded. On

the second, the odds are three to one it will be exceeded.

The third is the more probable, based on up-to-date

infor-mation. On the fourth, the chances are three to three it

walla'

be exceeded. The fifthjarthe odds are four to

five that it will mai be exceeded.

cAAS Lua

This is an interesting experime t and we ar9_,A0111.

-INN* a lot of other people,will be ^interested in knowing

how it will come out. 77e have a forecast for the Columbia

Basin, and I think it is the first forecast of the new type

survey. We are going to try to revamp our Sacramento figures

to follow the new procedure.

(25)

• .0,,,,,,,,...,,,„,,,,,,,,,„„,,,.... cw

runoff PIO,

Chairman: The further we go into thisl4the better we

-feriker

can see.

veAre there any questions,14Ftleme

A

Mr. J. 17. Stan: (Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder

City, Nevada) I should like to ask Mr. Lang if I understood

him correctly. Is the maximum deviation ten per cent, or is 4.

1"

the averag4110/

4

Mr. W. A, Lang: You mention this in connection with

the forecasts of water flow in California. Generally, our

forecasts fall within ten per cent plus, or ten per cent minus

the actual. Over in the Edison Company, we tried to plot the

a.A3

6A,AkAitb tr-vt

aftwomea:04400004W precipitation records

expected

for a number r years. We took the November to April figures

by months for precipitation at all of the stations in Colorado,

0.44-D

Utah and Wyoming millek without weighing them, wrisaiat let them

fall where they might. We got something like your "P" and "Q"

4001m* and said if the year before was a good supply year, it

would be "plus". If it was a bad one, it would be indicated

as I'minus". Two things were wrong. The accuracy is poor and

then, by the time we got all the data in and set up, the actual

records were available. It was inaccurate - there were mistakes.

074.2 )

Ninety-four point twodAis the best we had, by using all the

months from September to April, and that correlation has a

co-efficient of nineteen hundred and forty-two point two.

(042,2,)

Chairman: In following those diagrams, did you sense

the close correlation between your precipitation and runoff

1041144

curves? There was one place where ime definitely

age

a very

(26)

kt.rtr-"4"1"•°,

We are now approaching the lunch hour. Ifimeneer if it

ry‘lvl

ok,i •

might not be appropriate at this time to have something*ammist

tet citzkavailiZto, co-u-e-Pt,4 1161A

we want to c ns der

00 _{the 1945 runoff. 4/With that thought -4a}

We- can turn our attention to something that will be useful to

the Committee -11 the afternoon session.

Mr. R. A. Work: Mr. Chairman. For several years, I

have been associated with the work which has been carried on

by the Columbia Basin Water Forecast Committee. That Committee

has functioned for some nine years. They have devised a method

of procedure in analyzing these records and interpreting them

for application by the utility people, by the irrigation people,

and by commercial firms interested in agricultural production

for one reason or another. I would 't want to say that their

procedure should be

_{however, it might}

1,-Yt

give us something Am. which we could target our gun.

The procedure in that Committee has been for those

hav-ing the most intimate knowledge of conditions in local areas of

the Columbia Basin to present their data as to snow cover

and those other factors which influence runoff - such as

re-servoir storage, evaporation, the hold-over, lake effects

dur-ing years of incline or decline, etc. The current stream flow

is used too, as an indication of that which is to come. All

of those things,and more, have to be considered in arriving at

ftic

the estimate of/number of gallons of fuel oil that must be

pro-cured.

Then, everyone in attendance at that meeting has the

opportunity to contribute data or ask pertinent questions.

The

(27)

with quite a precise idea of the probable behaviof

flow of

the Columbia River, and :the result of thatâe

flow upon

agriculture and industry in that stream basin.

Therefore, the result of the Committee's consideration

of these problems is of interest to all water users throughout

the Basin. Means have been developed for acquainting the water

users throughout the Basin with the results of the Committee's

study - by means of releases of pertinent informati n through

dixt

,

_/LA,

the press, radio and

A

by means of *ha:printed

such as

the mimeographed release you have here. If that plan were to be

followed here, I expect you would have a comprehensive summary

rerueja

of snow water, reservoir conditions Eeam the Upper Colorado

River.,

_{The same information could be had from Dean Clyde and}

abzirir;t111110P'L

A/b4

_.eyi-t-t

/k

other representativesC

the Upper Colorado MINK t

Canada. Thank you.

(Mr. Fork reads paper of Frank C. Merriell, Secretary

of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Grand Junction,

Colorado.)

(Meeting adjourned for lunch)

AFTERNOON SESSION

LA;LIL

t4d164._

7'49 0'14-340

• Chairman:

gentln

We

were fortunate in being able to advance the program

cUAlvt•vv%

-0.12.1414.4.4"4

JRWMommillbh one of the paper.

the moping that was listed

0.4i-

,

"

4:

A

itiiiicy,,,,aLekty.&4_,

A

1- JUL afternoonnterf. Alitre will, therefore, now discuss

tk

the subject of methods used by the Bureau of Reclamation in

the predicting of flood season discharge of the Colorado River

into Lake Mead.4

)

.C4A1MC

"

C-7-> Not only is thieof interest to those of us concerned

with irrigation, but it is.of primary importance to the Bureau

2,3

(28)

1=11111.1M.

• have used.

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Mr. J. W, Stanley: During the past several years, the

forecasting of inflow into Lake Mead has been carried on by Mr.

Honnold in the Denver Office. Beginning with the year 1946,

thisA.,

wila be transferred to Regional Office Number 3, at Boulder

City, Nevada. To that end we are working down there - trying to

see what can be done to improve the precision of the forecasts.

Mr. Honnold has prepared a paper, outlini

„tet.

will read his paper

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the Regional Office, a4—tee

the methods they .

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(Reads Mr. Honnold's paper, copy of which was given to

the Chairman)

a

I-NY. Stgnley: Over hn Boulder City,

-'6 61/14

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womk.idin precipitation earl* the prediction of spring outflows.

we have started

4A.rtriik L4ji$e

I have prepared an outline telling what we have done so far

and what we hope to accomplish later on. This is made on the

basis of snow surveys/and precipitati

ecords. The snow

survey data used is the same as thatAHonnold used. The

precipi-tation records are those compiled a few years ago, including

(29)

1898 to 1934. Tle are making a reexamination of these, as Dean

2-Clyde told.

ZA-this morning. (Reads his paper, copy of which was ...—

given to the Chairman.)

Dean Clyde: Did I understand you to say that the

pre-cipitation during March is best?

Mr. Stanley: That was in Mr. Honnold's paper, I believe.

Dean Clyde: I've heard that before. I've also heard

that the early snow creates the later summer water. I don't

be-lieve either one. It doesn't make any difference "when", just

so long as it does come. Then too, I don't think that nine years

is a long enough period to score with. There is one very

inter-esting thing. The forecast on April first, this year, on the

basis of the 1898 to 1934 figures, happened to yield the very

same mean probable,value as the April first snow survey. There

was a slight difference in the mean. Does it then follow that

nine years of snowfall are representative of forty years?

Mr. Stanley: The chart I have drawn shows March increase

against the April-July with not as good a correlation. We have

started our mathematical calculations on that, but,simple March

increase against the runoff suggests something.

ELE.1_1114119.2..gozzeng: It is true that the March runoff

can spoil our March first forecasts. But, do you have to

mea-sure just that increase - can't

yau-AMMt

take the total amount

on the ground on April first?

Mr. Harold Conkling: That is exactly what we do. That

(30)

Chairman: It is certainly interesting when we reflect.

Here is the problem: , Xhe WA ear comes down on the earth and runs

off. The runoff is,

_{related to precipitation in the}

form of rainfall, hail, fog and other phenomena. I suspect that

If we keep at this thing long enoug41 we wil get in a corner.

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Dean Clyde: I would like to make this suggestion: we

should all keep in mind this simple, basic relation - the runoff

is the residual, and precipitation** the main

Although we

must use these methods of analysis, we must not lose sight of

precipitation. We have not measured all of those variables yet.

I think when we do measure them, we will find that the points

line up very well.

Chairman: Yes, we often find we get more water with less

snow. There is some reason for that. Maybe it's because we are

not conscious of the effect of things of small order. I was

talking with Mr. reMitiveN-. I said, "Charlie, can you imagine

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like the Colorado having

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us as snow?

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(31)

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