Fredrik Hedenus, PhD
Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology
Hedenus@chalmers.se
Nuclear power as a solution to climate change?
Potential consequences of global up-scaling
Some notes on my perspective and background
I am not a nuclear engineer I will not focus on waste
Climate mitigation perspective An energy system perspective A global perspective
Main focus on nuclear proliferation and resource base
Nuclear energy as climate mitigation option
Fossile Non-fossile
Weisser, 2007
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Mton CO2
ROW MIC OECD
Meeting the 2 degree target with 70% probability
Final energy demand
0 50 100 150 200 250
OECD MIC ROW OECD MIC ROW
2000 2050
Engergy demand (EJ)
Transport Residential Industry Electrcity
Energy technology Developed Main advantages Main problems
Nuclear Yes Base load Waste, proliferation,
public acceptance Coal with CCS Demonstration
level Base load, can be applied to many emissions sources
Public acceptance, storage capacity
Bioenergy Yes Fuel, cheap Land scarcity
Wind and solar PV Yes Large resource
base, renewable Intermittency Concentrated
solar power
Demonstration level
Large resource base, renewable
Only in sunny regions, costly
Cost of nuclear energy
Resources
Price and Blaise, 2002
Uranium resources
0 5000 10000 15000
Reserves Secondary sources
Undiscovered Speculative Phosphates Sea water Oil reserves
(EJ)
2400 ZJ
The GET model
Cost-minimizing model
Covers the global energy system 3 regions – OECD
- Middle income countries (MIC) - Rest of the world (ROW)
Time-perspective 2000-2100
Technology costs and resource constraints
Emission cap
Nuclear options in GET
LWR
LWR with MOX fuel FBR from 2030.
Helium cooled reactors that could produce H2 with high efficiency
Electricity generation, without carbon constraint
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(EJ)
FBR LWR Hydrogen Solar
Wind + hydro Bioenergy CCS Bioenergy Gas CCS Gas
Coal and Oil CCS Coal and Oil
Electricity supply, 400 ppm CO2, no nuclear
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(EJ)
FBR LWR Hydrogen Solar
Wind + hydro Bioenergy CCS Bioenergy Gas CCS Gas
Coal and Oil CCS Coal and Oil
Electricity supply, 400 ppm, all nuclear
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(EJ)
FBR LWR
Wind + hydro Bioenergy Gas CCS Gas
Coal and Oil CCS Coal and Oil
400 ppm, all nuclear
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
EJ
Primary energy supply
FBR LWR Solar
wind and hydro Biomass
Gas Coal Oil
Electricity supply, 400 ppm, no nuc in ROW
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(EJ)
FBR LWR Solar
Wind + hydro Gas CCS Gas
Coal and Oil CCS Coal and Oil
Electricity supply, 400 ppm, no sea water uranium and no FBR
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(EJ)
FBR LWR Hydrogen Solar
Wind + hydro Bioenergy CCS Bioenergy Gas CCS Gas
Coal and Oil CCS Coal and Oil
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Full nuc No nuc No sea, no FBR No ROW
$2010/ton CO2
2050 2070
Carbon price
Number of reactors
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Full nuc No nuc No sea, no No ROW
Number of nuclear reactors
2050 2070
Climate mitigation and nuclear energy
A 2 degree target is technically feasible also without nuclear energy
A full nuclear scenario reduces the cost of reaching stringent targets, and about ten-fold the number of reactors by 2050 Breeders or sea water uranium is required for nuclear to make
large scale climate mitigation effort
Risk of nuclear proliferation
For the mitigation effort to be large scale, nuclear knowledge and technology must be spread globally
Proliferation risk will depend on
– Diffusion of enrichment and reprocessing among states with weak institution and/or nuclear weapon ambitions.
- Demand for nuclear knowledge - Level of international safeguards
Even if breeders are proliferation resistant, LWR and enrichment will be present in a long transient phase (50 years)
