Conflict background and actors in Kabul

In May 2020, the UN Security Council reported on a reorganisation of the Taliban shadow governance and military structure in several provinces, with key new appointments made in Kabul province.¹⁷⁹⁰ An LWJ assessment mapping Taliban control in Afghanistan in a frequently updated map and based on open-source information, consulted on 2 July 2020, indicated all Kabul’s districts as

‘government-1778 Warden, S., Past as Prologue? What the Parliamentary Election Results Tell Us About the September Presidential Election, AAN, 23 August 2019, url

1779 US, Naval Postgraduate School, Kabul Provincial Overview, n.d., url

1780 Pajhwok Afghan News, Elections 2019: Kabul Province Background Profile, n.d., url

1781 UNOCHA, Afghanistan Kabul Province - District Atlas, April 2014, url

1782 Hamid Karzai International Airport [website], n.d., url

1783 Bjelica, J., New World Drug Report: Opium Production in Afghanistan Remained the Same in 2019, AAN, 25 June 2020, url

1784 UNODC and Afghanistan, MCN, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018, November 2018, url, p. 21

1785 Undark, The Wild Shrub at the Root of the Afghan Meth Epidemic, 20 May 2020, url

1786 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 30 July 2019, url, pp. 171-172

1787 UNODC and Afghanistan, MCN, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018: Challenges to Sustainable Development, Peace and Security, 30 July 2019, url, p. 36

1788 SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 30 April 2020, url, p. 121

1789 UNSG, The Situation in Afghanistan and Its Implications for International Peace and Security,A/74/753–S/2020/210, 17 March 2020, url, p. 14

1790 UNSC, Eleventh Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2501 (2019) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace, Stability and Security of Afghanistan, 27 May 2020, url, pp. 8-9

controlled’ or ‘undetermined’.¹⁷⁹¹ As confirmed by USDOD and SIGAR, the capital, Kabul City, has remained under the control of the Afghan government.¹⁷⁹²

According to UNOCHA, the situation in Surobi district, in the eastern part of the province, has become increasingly volatile due to a rising number of militant attacks on ANDSF positions.¹⁷⁹³ The district has a significant strategic relevance because of its proximity to Kabul City and the Salang Highway.¹⁷⁹⁴ As reported by AAN analyst Fabrizio Foschini in 2015, the government’s control over the Uzbin Valley in Surobi district had decreased and members of Hezb-e Islami, which has historically been the stronger group in the area, as well as the Taliban, have been reported present in the district. The Uzbin Valley has been serving as a relatively easily traversable connection to the insecure districts of Tagab in Kapisa province and Bad Pakh in Laghman province. According to Foschini, this broader region is ‘an important crossing point and sanctuary for insurgents moving deeper into Afghanistan from the border area [with Pakistan]’.¹⁷⁹⁵

Media sources in 2019 and 2020 reported on a Taliban presence in Surobi district, as well as on the arrest and killing of several prominent figures of the militant group in the area.¹⁷⁹⁶ In March 2019, two Taliban militants, reportedly planning a suicide attack in the district, were arrested during an NDS operation.¹⁷⁹⁷ In an ANDSF operation with US air support in the same month, the Taliban shadow district governor for Surobi was reportedly probably killed, as well as a key Taliban commander known as Mullah Rasheed.¹⁷⁹⁸ In May 2020, a Taliban commander known as Mullah Jan was injured, when a mortar, he was reportedly attempting to launch on a security forces’ base in the Uzbin Valley, went off prematurely.¹⁷⁹⁹

According to UNAMA, Surobi district has in recent years witnessed several community conflicts. In 2018, for example, ‘a mediation process […] helped two tribes resolve a longstanding land dispute that had turned violent’. According to the Surobi local council head, ‘the major causes of conflict in the district are underdevelopment and poverty.’¹⁸⁰⁰

In July 2020, a rising Taliban presence and activity in several villages of the Arghandi area in Paghman district was reported. According to local residents, well-armed Taliban militants were launching attacks on security checkpoints, planting IEDs and extorting people. NDS officials, cited by Tolonews, confirmed two prominent Taliban commanders were operating in the area between Arghandi and the Kohna Kumar valley in Wardak province.¹⁸⁰¹

ISKP is reported as active and capable of carrying out attacks in Kabul¹⁸⁰², as well as to have caused civilian casualties in the province in 2019.¹⁸⁰³ However, due to continued ANDSF pressure to disrupt its

1791 LWJ, Mapping Taliban Control in Afghanistan, n.d., url (LWJ, however, does not specify when and which information of the aforementioned map was last updated.)

1792 USDOD, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan - June 2019, 12 July 2019, url, p. 18; USDOD, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan - December 2019, 23 January 2020, url, p. 16; SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 30 April 2020, url, p. 66

1793 UNOCHA, Afghanistan - Weekly Humanitarian Update (27 January - 2 February 2020), 3 February 2020, url, p. 2

1794 War on the Rocks, Remembering the French War in Afghanistan, 10 September 2018, url

1795 Foschini, F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing Some of Afghanistan’s Most Notorious Hotspots, AAN, 9 July 2015, url

1796 See sources mentioned below.

1797 Khaama Press, Suicide Bomber and His Companion Arrested in Kabul: NDS, 10 March 2019, url

1798 Tolonews, Five Civilians Killed in Afghan Forces Operation in Surobi, 26 March 2019, url

1799 Khaama Press, Taliban Commander Loses Both Legs in Premature Mortar Round Explosion in Kabul, 4 May 2020, url

1800 UNAMA, Kabul Elders Call for Participation of Afghans in Peacefully Resolving Community Conflict, 15 November 2018, url

1801 Tolonews, Residents West of Kabul City Report Rise in Taliban Activity, 15 July 2020, url

1802 USDOD, Lead Inspector General (IC) for Overseas Contingency Operations, Operation Freedom’s Sentinel - Report to the United States Congress 1 July - 30 September 2019, 20 November 2019, url, p. 18; UNSC, Eleventh Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2501 (2019) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace, Stability and Security of Afghanistan, 27 May 2020, url, p. 4

1803 UNAMA, Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict - Annual Report 2019, 22 February 2020, url, p. 36

activities¹⁸⁰⁴, the militant group exhibited a reduced capacity to carry out high-profile attacks in Kabul in 2019.¹⁸⁰⁵ While ISKP represents a diminished threat since receiving a significant setback in late 2019 in what had been its Afghan headquarters in Nangarhar province, several sources indicate the group has not been eradicated entirely and has shown notable resilience in the past. Grounds for concern are added that several ISKP groups might have relocated to Kunar and Kabul provinces, raising the potential for a resurgence¹⁸⁰⁶, although reviving the groups networks would probably need time.¹⁸⁰⁷ Between 1 March 2019 and 30 June 2020, ACLED recorded one incident specifically attributed to ISKP in Kabul province, outside of Kabul district (for information on the presence of ISKP in Kabul City, recruitment and incidents attributed to the group in the capital region, see the chapter on Kabul City).¹⁸⁰⁸ In February 2020, ISKP reportedly fired missiles on a US military base in Bagrami district, no casualties were recorded.¹⁸⁰⁹ In the same district in August 2019, two ISKP militants were reportedly killed in an ANDSF operation.¹⁸¹⁰ Additionally, ACLED recorded two incidents in which Taliban and/or ISKP militants were wounded and/or killed during military operations in Surobi district in July 2019 and in Paghman district in November 2019.¹⁸¹¹ In May 2020, various ISKP and Haqqani Network hideouts in the capital (see chapter on Kabul City) as well as in Shakardara district were raided during an operation by NDS special units. Several members of the militant groups, including a regional ISKP leader¹⁸¹², were reportedly arrested and killed.¹⁸¹³

In terms of the presence of government security forces, the main part of Kabul province falls under the responsibility of the Train, Advise and Assist Command - Capital (TAAC-C), which is part of NATO’s Resolute Support Mission within Afghanistan. TAAC-C is currently led by Turkish forces together with contingents from other nations. The district of Surobi falls under the responsibility of the 201^stANA corps.¹⁸¹⁴ According to USDOD, about 10 % of US’ and Afghan Forces’ operations in 2019 focused on the Kabul region, preventing high-profile attacks.¹⁸¹⁵ The Special Mission Wing (SMW), an ANDSF unit established in 2012, has several assault squadrons in Kabul to conduct counterterrorism and

1804 Norway, Landinfo, Afghanistan: Sikkerhetssituasjon og konfliktmonster i 2019, 22 January 2020, url, p. 17; UNSC, Tenth Report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to International Peace and Security and the Range of UN Efforts in Support of Member States in Countering the Threat, 4 February 2020, url, pp. 6-7

1805 Norway, Landinfo, Afghanistan: Sikkerhetssituasjon og konfliktmonster i 2019, 22 January 2020, url, p. 25; Washington Post (The), Afghanistan Claims the Islamic State Was ‘Obliterated’. But Fighters Who Got Away Could Stage a Resurgence, 9 February 2020, url; UNAMA, Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict - Annual Report 2019, 22 February 2020, url, p. 7

1806 NYT, ISIS Is Losing Afghan Territory. That Means Little for Its Victims, 2 December 2019, url; International source Landinfo spoke to in October 2019. Norway, Landinfo, Afghanistan: Sikkerhetssituasjon og konfliktmonster i 2019, 22 January 2020, url, pp. 21-22; UNSC, Tenth Report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to International Peace and Security and the Range of UN Efforts in Support of Member States in Countering the Threat, 4 February 2020, url, pp. 6-7; Washington Post (The), Afghanistan Claims the Islamic State Was ‘Obliterated’. But Fighters Who Got Away Could Stage a Resurgence, 9 February 2020, url; UNAMA, Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict - Annual Report 2019, 22 February 2020, url, p. 37

1807 Ali, O., Hit from Many Sides 1: Unpicking the Recent Victory Against the ISKP in Nangarhar, AAN, 1 March 2020, url

1808 EASO analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, (Filters applied: Central Asia & the Caucasus; Afghanistan; Kabul; Event types: Battles; Explosions/Remote Violence; Violence against Civilians; 1 March 2019 - 30 June 2020), url

1809 EASO analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, (Filters applied: Central Asia & the Caucasus; Afghanistan; Kabul; Event types: Battles; Explosions/Remote Violence; Violence against Civilians; 1 March 2019 - 30 June 2020), url

1810 Tolonews, Afghan Forces Raid Militants Hideouts in Kabul, 7 August 2019, url

1811 EASO analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, (Filters applied: Central Asia & the Caucasus; Afghanistan; Kabul; Event types: Battles; Explosions/Remote Violence; Violence against Civilians; 1 March 2019 - 30 June 2020), url

1812 RFE/RL, Afghan Forces Capture Key Figures From Islamic State's South Asia Branch, 11 May 2020, url

1813 Tolonews, Afghan Forces Raid Daesh Hideout North of Kabul, 6 May 2020, url; Khaama Press, 5 killed As Special Forces Bust Major Network Led by ISIS, Haqqani Network in Kabul, 6 May 2020, url; RFE/RL, Afghan Forces Capture Key Figures From Islamic State's South Asia Branch, 11 May 2020, url

1814 USDOD, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan - June 2020, 1 July 2020, url, p. 13

1815 USDOD, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan - June 2019, 12 July 2019, url, p. 6; USDOD, Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan - December 2019, 23 January 2020, url, p. 7

counternarcotic missions.¹⁸¹⁶ NDS unit 01, a paramilitary CIA-backed militia accused of human rights abuses, is reported to operate in the central region, including in Kabul province.¹⁸¹⁷