LOCATING THE ROOTS OF INSECURITY AND VIOLENCE: COMMUNITY TRAUMA AND REPRODUCED HARMS AND REPRODUCED HARMS

51 0044 - 'LEGITIMACY, FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE IN THE BREACH PROCESS': COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES?

Niamh Maguire (Ireland)¹; Jose Cid (Spain)³; Anthea Hucklesby (United Kingdom)²; Maria Anagnostaki (Greece)⁴

1 - Waterford Institute of Technology; 2 - University of Leeds; 3 - Universitat Autonoma Barcelona; 4 - National & Kapodistrian University of Athens

Significant attention is paid to the rights of those suspected or accused of criminal offences.

However, there has been much less focus on the rights of offenders who breach supervisory sentences, including community orders, or those who breach conditions of early release from prison despite the consequences of such infractions sometimes being severe. These may include being sent or recalled to prison for significant periods of time, additional conditions such as electronic monitoring being imposed or being resentenced. Due process rights such as the right to a public hearing and legal representation and standards of evidence and proof often depart significantly from those applied prior to conviction. This paper will examine the breach and recall processes in several European jurisdictions to explore the extent to which due process protections are enshrined into law and operate in practice in relation to both community sentences and early release from prison.

1.12 LOCATING THE ROOTS OF INSECURITY AND VIOLENCE: COMMUNITY TRAUMA

0046 - WAR TRAUMA 20 YEARS AFTER - SYMBOLIC, IMAGINARY AND REAL Renata Salecl (Slovenia)¹

1 - Institute of Criminology at Faculty of Law, Ljubljana, Slovenia

What does 20 years mean when we are dealing with traumas of war? How do people symbolize the war, what kind of imaginary they create when they try to make sense of what happened to them and their country and how do they come to terms with their losses?

In the last years, I visited both Srebrenica and St Luis in Missouri where there is the largest community of Bosnian refugees in the US. The way these two communities deal with trauma is radically different. However, they strangely find similar dilemmas when they search for the remains of their loved ones with the help of forensic analysis.

Trauma, however, has not surpassed also the observers - the Dutch soldiers who witnessed the genocide and did nothing to prevent it. But did the other observers - the international community - learn anything from Srebrenica? Did not the lack of reflection on failure of intervention in Srebrenica, paradoxically, allow other future failures to multiply?

0047 - SOCIAL INEQUALITY AS TRAUMA: NEIGHBOURHOOD LIFE, INEQUALITY AND SOCIAL DANGER IN LONDON

Rowland Atkinson (United Kingdom)¹ 1 - University of Sheffield

This presentation picks up on research from a large-scale project looking at the changing life of London under conditions in which the emergence of the super-rich has been a notable feature of everyday social life. Looking ‘up’ to consider this groups, their security concerns and mobilities, the paper elaborates more generally on the kind of city that London has become and seeks to conceptualise these changes as a kind of trauma, or social damage, enacted on the citizenry more generally. Drawing statistical data on the geography of violence in the city the presentation considers how social inequality and the symbolic violence of gentrification and a more excluding built environment shape life in those neighbourhoods off the political map of the city.

53 1.13 ADVANCES IN QUANTITATIVE CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND METHODS I Chair: Heinz Leitgöb

0048 - THE ESTIMATION OF TRAJECTORIES OF DELINQUENCY CONSIDERING MISSING DATA TECHNIQUES

Jost Reinecke (Germany)¹

1 - University of Bielefeld, Faculty of Sociology

The paper addresses the possibilities to use different missing data techniques when researchers are confronted with unit-nonresponses in criminological panel data. Reinecke and Weins (2013) have shown that using only complete cases of a panel data reduces the number of cases dramatically and leads to an underestimation of the age-crime curve. Techniques like Full-Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) or Multiple Imputation (MI) are able to reduce the underestimation. But using FIML or MI requires normality assumptions of the response variables and these variables are treated as continuous measurements. But, prevalence and incidence measurements are measures of deviant and delinquent behaviour and therefore count variables. Count variables should be treated under correct statistical distributional assumptions (e.g., the Poisson or the negative binomial model). In addition, panel data are multilevel data by definition and clustering of the data are also usually not considered when using missing data techniques.

Kleinke and Reinecke (2013a, b) recently developed a program to impute missing data for count data (with the correct distributional assumptions) and, in addition, considering the clustering of the data as well. 9 wave panel data of the CrimoC-study (www.crimoc.org) are used to show benefits and pitfalls of several missing data techniques when estimating trajectories of delinquency.

References

Reinecke, J. & Weins, C. (2013). The development of delinquency during adolescence: A comparison of missing data techniques. Quality & Quantity, 47 (6), 3319-3334.

Kleinke, K. & Reinecke, J. (2013a). countimp 1.0 - A multiple imputation package for incomplete count data. http://www.uni-bielefeld.de/soz/kds/pdf/countimp.pdf.

Kleinke, K. & Reinecke, J. (2013b). Multiple imputation of incomplete zero-inflated count data.

Statistica Neerlandica, 67 (3), 311-336.

0049 - BAYESIAN SEM IN CRIMINOLOGY: THE ASSESSMENT OF MEASUREMENT INVARIANCE AND CROSS LOADINGS

Daniel Seddig (Switzerland)¹; Heinz Leitgöb (Germany)² 1 - University of Zurich; 2 - University of Frankfurt

To assess cross-loadings (CLs) and measurement invariance (MI) Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) uses zero mean, small variance priors, assuming approximate rather than exact zero constraints. Reasonable prior information enables flexible modelling and avoids too large deviations. We illustrate these features with an example of adolescent hedonism and delinquent peer group association. A common developmental pattern is analysed with multivariate latent growth models using panel data for n =1,186 adolescents from the German criminological study “Crime in the modern city”. We assess MI following the “two-step Bayesian analysis procedure” proposed by Muthén and Asparouhov (2013) and additionally specify contemporaneous CLs. Results indicate, that BSEM is well suitable (i) to assess CLs and alter the correlations between latent growth components, (ii) to address issues of MI with approximate invariance constraints, (iii) to identify non-invariant parameters and (iv) to account for partial invariance. We further discuss substantial differences between the Bayesian and Deviance Information Criterion (BIC and DIC) for model selection.

0050 - METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES OF AGING IN FEAR OF CRIME RESEARCH Göran Köber (Germany)¹

1 - Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

The interplay of which individual traits and social beliefs causes fear of crime? This question occupied substantial parts of criminological research efforts in the past decades. However, does the methodological implementation or, more precisely, the data preparation have an effect on empirical findings? Presenting first results of a postal survey in Cologne and Essen (n

= 6563) conducted by the Max Planck Institute in Freiburg, this talk concentrates on the question what influence age has on exploratory variables of and fear of crime itself.

Methodologically, this talk has two foci: First, it compares the results of confirmatory factor analysis based on product-moment correlation coefficients with those based on polychromic correlation coefficients. Second and more importantly, it will be shown that unit-nonresponse is increasing with age. Therefore, a regression model will be presented trying to explain unit-nonresponse. As a solution, the effects of the usage of multiple imputation techniques will be demonstrated in both confirmatory factor analysis and a subsequent regression analysis.

55 1.14 DESISTANCE PROCESSES AMONG JUVENILE AND ADOLESCENT OFFENDERS

FOLLOWING JUDICIAL INTERVENTIONS Chair: Maria Walsh

0051 - EFFECTS OF JUDICIAL INTERVENTIONS ON THE DESISTANCE PROCESS - RESULTS OF A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

Maria Walsh (Germany)¹

1 - Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

The effects of judicial interventions on the desistance process will be assessed. The paper provides results from a series of qualitative interviews with probationers and parolees in an intensive probation and parole supervision program. The effects of judicial interventions on offenders’ life will be discussed from a subjective point of view as well as in the light of officially registered recidivism.

0052 - TRANSITIONS OF JUVENILE DELINQUENTS FROM PUNITIVE ENFORCEMENTS TO FREEDOM

Jakob Humm (Switzerland)¹ 1 - Universität Zürich

Within the scope of the dissertation project of Jakob Humm, biographical histories of juvenile delinquents are portrayed after they have been discharged from punitive enforcements. Using partly narrative interviews, conditions regarding motivation, strategic intentions, successes, and rejections in regard to reintegration are tried to account for, whereas a special focus lies on integration via labour. In doing so, methodical guidelines consist of a systematic orientation towards the text material on the one hand and on approaches gained from reconstructing narrative identities based on the work of Lucius-Hoene on the other.

Up until now (i.e. mid-/late February 2015), four adolescents could be gained for a follow-up interview. (Nearly) all of the dialogue partners have not been relapsing – they all had a career and a place to live. The particular life designs differ from one another widely; in two cases, gainful employment offers a highly structured and also integrating framework, one subject regards labour primarily as a means to an end, and one interviewee is able to finish his apprenticeship while he earns some money on the side as a computer-game test player. The joy of being able to work, which had been manifest among prospective craftsmen in the first round of interviews, has turned into a more detached and less euphoric mood by the second round. Entering into the vocational world was made possible in all cases, except for the apprentice, through temporary employment, which in turn led to full employment.

Stigmatization was hardly ever mentioned in this context, whereas disclosure or suppression of the former delinquents’ life stories has been handled very differently.

Within the frame work of the dissertation project, five further second round interviews are planned with juveniles from different punitive enforcement institutions for 2015.

0053 - „BREAKING THE VICIOUS CYCLE“– LIFECOURSE PROCESSES AND STAGES OF DESISTANCE AMONG YOUNG PRISON RELEASEES

Elke Wienhausen-Knezevic (Germany)¹

1 - Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

This paper deals with transitions and trajectories of young offenders after a period of incarceration. Therefore a life-course perspective is applied to study young men’s transition from prison to freedom. The qualitative analysis is based on 24 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with formerly incarcerated adolescents, one year after prison release.

Imprisonment can be seen as a critical life event for young offenders, in the sense that effects of imprisonment can interrupt the developmental process from adolescence to adulthood.

Against this backdrop, young ex-prisoners’ ability to elaborate e.g. human agency, which is indispensable according to desistance research for establishing a new non-deviant self-concept for upholding a socially responsible life without offending, can be impaired. Likewise the transition from prison to freedom is also a critical life event embedded in different phases young releases go through. Thus subjective assimilation-formats (Verarbeitungsformate) and trajectories after incarceration are investigated from a life course- and agency theoretical perspective. Above all the dynamic interplay of subjective and socio-structural factors influencing the desistance process of young male offenders will be discussed. From a set of qualitative interviews with young males released partially from social therapy wards the ex-convicts lived meanings regarding the transition from prison to freedom is presented.

Specifically the diverse trajectories after participating in social therapeutic measures are outlined.

The findings reveal that the development towards desistance is a complex process in which specifically five key categories influencing each other differently in a dynamic interplay within various transition-phases. In order to identify the explicit mechanisms within the desistance-process, the developed interactionist model, the so called ZARIA-scheme, is presented.

57 0054 - SHORT SHARP SHOCK INCARCERATION IN GERMANY - A NEW WAY TO FOSTER YOUNG OFFENDERS' LAW-COMPLYING CONDUCT?

Ursula Gernbeck (Germany)¹

1 - Georg August Universitaet Goettingen

Until 2013, there was almost no short sharp shock incarceration for young offenders in Germany. Only those criminals who did not show relevant behavioural disorder and whose need for education was rather low could have been arrested for up to four weeks. The ones with stronger deficits either had their sentence suspended on probation or, if chances for legal probation were low, imprisoned for at least six months. In particular there was no way to combine short incarceration and suspended sentences.

This has been changed in 2013. After a long and intense crime policy debate, the German young offenders’ penal code was modified such that the combination of those two punishments is now legally possible. The reform was based on the idea that a short sharp shock incarceration at the beginning of the probation period could deter the convicted criminal and improve the chances of legal probation.

This new punishment, called “warning shot arrest”, is object of the presented research project.

The legislator was driven by the idea that the group of detainees for whom the short sharp shock incarceration was originally designed would be exposed to multiple risks. For that reason there have been set up special social trainings during detention in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a state in the southern part of Germany. The courses are meant to teach the detainees how to cope with their everyday life in a norm-compliant way. The overall goal of these classes is to reduce recidivism after release. The evaluation of the “warning shot arrest” in Baden-Wuerttemberg is based on the implementation, but goes even further. It looks at the young offenders’ recidivism rates after release and tries to detect weather the short sharp shock incarceration has positive effects on them. The heart of the research design is a survey conducted among detainees and social workers who lead social training courses during detention. In addition to the survey, case files are analyzed to detect the specifics of trials that end up with short detention as a sanction.

The presented research project aims to check empirically if and how young offenders get themselves into these trainings and if this can change their mind and behaviour. Above all it will be outlined to what extend the legislative view and the arguments in the crime policy debate have counterparts in reality. Furthermore the presentation will show first results of the survey and case file analysis as well as insights in the issue of repeated offences after short detention.

1.15 DRUG POLICIES AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE