Presence and areas of control of armed actors Iraqi forces Iraqi forces

Iraqi forces’ measures to secure the Iraqi border towards Syria remain a challenge. The USDOD quarterly report to the United States Congress in July 2021 maintains that ISF ability to stop illegal crossing of ISIL members remains limited. ISIL often exploits security gaps along the border area, facilitating smuggling routes. Family members of ISIL fighters usually cross ahead to establish resting locations, facilitating for fighters to move to geographic ISIL strongholds.⁴⁷¹ ISF’s measures in stopping ISIL smuggling invokes punitive intimidation attacks against members of the security forces.⁴⁷²

For more information on the ISF’s areas of control, please see section 2.1.2 of the EASO-COI report Iraq: Security Situation (2019).

Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU)

The PMU hold positions along the Iraqi - Syrian border, despite government efforts to reduce the militias’ presence. Carnegie reported in March 2020, that the main Iran-backed militias controlling the border areas are KH, Kata’ib Imam Ali, Saraya Khorasan, Saraya Ansar

al-467 Guardian (The), US: strikes on Iran-backed militia a response to ‘campaign’ of attacks by Tehran, 30 December 2019, url

468 Aljazeera, Where did Iran attack US forces in Iraq?, 08 January 2020, url

469 Carnegie Middle East Center, The Transformation of the Iraqi-Syrian Border: From a National to a Regional Frontier, March 2020, url, pp. 12

470 Carnegie Middle East Center, The Transformation of the Iraqi-Syrian Border: From a National to a Regional Frontier, March 2020, url, pp. 14-15

471 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, April 1 – June 30 2021, 30 July 2021, url, p. 33

472 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, April 1 – June 30 2021, 30 July 2021, url, p. 33

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Hujja,⁴⁷³ including Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada.⁴⁷⁴ Another militia group also mentioned by Carnegie is Liwa Al-Tafuf, which is loyal to the religious authorities led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Sunni tribal militias, registered as PMU, retain a presence in the area. These are the Hamza Brigade and the Upper Euphrates Brigade,⁴⁷⁵ in addition to the Karbala and the Mahalawi tribes, from al-Qaim.⁴⁷⁶

An analysis published in the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (TWI) in July 2021 reported that KH holds a presence at the border area with Syria.⁴⁷⁷

For more information on the PMU forces areas of control, please see section 2.1.2 of the EASO-COI report Iraq: Security Situation (2019).

ISIL

According to the Newline Institute for Strategy and Policy, the government’s achievements in repelling ISIL’s activities remain relatively modest despite extensive military operations carried out by security forces. Anbar continues to be a strategic geographic distribution point for the organisation, hosting fighters and securing supply routes.⁴⁷⁸

A security analysis presented by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC)⁴⁷⁹ on ISIL’s strategy in Iraq concluded that ISIL continues to maintain sleeper cells in western Iraq. The EPC further noted that, since March 2020, ISIL has attempted to carry out several offensive activities in the governorate, reportedly operating from the areas of Lake Tharthar, Zoya and Tarbasha in northern Anbar.⁴⁸⁰

Joel Wing, in Musings on Iraq in March 2021, stated that Anbar governorate reported lower numbers of ISIL’s attacks compared to other governorates.⁴⁸¹ J. Wing attributes the low number of attacks to ISIL’s strategy of using the governorate as a logistics hub.⁴⁸² For information, please see section 2.1.2 of the EASO-COI report Iraq: Security Situation (2019).

473 Carnegie Middle East Center, The Transformation of the Iraqi-Syrian Border: From a National to a Regional Frontier, March 2020, url , p. 12

474 Witty, D., @IntelTweet, [Twitter], 28 June 2021, url

475 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Carnegie Middle East Center, The Transformation of the Iraqi-Syrian Border: From a National to a Regional Frontier, March 2020, url , pp. 12-13

476 Al-Monitor, Anbar tribes key to security, political backing ahead of Iraq’s October vote, 22 April 2021, url

477 Malik, H., Crispin, S., Knights, M., , The drones of Kataib Hezbollah’s Jazira Command, Washington Institute for the Near East Policy (The)(TWI), 20 July 2021, url

478 Al-Hamid, R., ISIS in Iraq: Weakened but agile, Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy (NISP), 18 May 2021, url

479 ‘an independent think tank based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The EPC was established in September 2013 during the turmoil of the “Arab Spring” to study internal and external threats to nation-states in the Arabian Gulf region and the broader Arab world. The EPC aims to determine and forecast the impacts of geopolitical developments and changes in the global balance of power on the UAE and the region.’ EPC, About us, n. d., url

480 Emirates Policy Center (EPC), ISIS Strategy in Iraq, 5 January 2021, url

481 Wing, J., Musings on Iraq, Violence in Iraq, March 2021, 5 April 2021, url

482 Wing, J. Musings on Iraq, Security in Iraq June 2021, 6 July 2021, url

77 2.1.4 Recent security trends

Developments August 2020- October 2021 Conflict with ISIL

After a steady increase in the number of attacks in the second quarter in 2020, a gradual decline in ISIL activities has been registered in December 2020.⁴⁸³ According to a USDOD quarterly report to the United States Congress, covering the period April 2020-June 2020, ISIL carried out small-scale attacks, mostly targeting ISF,⁴⁸⁴ as well as members of the PMU.⁴⁸⁵ ISIL fighters operated mostly in small cohesive cells, consisting of five to fifteen fighters, relying on small arms, IEDs and mortars. USDOD further reported that Anbar saw a smaller number of attacks, totalling 55, during the second quarter 2020, in comparison to the northern and central governorates, whereby Diyala recorded 150 attacks, Salah al-Din 61, Kirkuk 70 and Ninewa 24 attacks.⁴⁸⁶ ISIL maintained a low-level insurgency in Anbar

throughout the year. Operations carried out against ISIL in northern and western Iraq, such as

‘Heroes of Iraq’, concluded in the last quarter of 2020, resulted in the destruction of ISIL hideouts and in killing or capturing of ISIL fighters. The operations reduced ISIL’s mobility and its ability to access urban centres.⁴⁸⁷ However, Shafaq News reported in November 2020 that the absence of security forces triggered successive ISIL attacks, around the outskirts and suburbs of Rutba.⁴⁸⁸

ISIL’s loss of several field-intelligence-operatives within the governorate resulted in retaliatory attacks against local clerics and officials.⁴⁸⁹ On 23 November 2020, a policeman was killed in Rutba district after gunmen opened fire on his vehicle.⁴⁹⁰ NBC news analyst Evan Kohlmann posted on Twitter on the same day that ISIL executed a local official and five Iraqi soldiers in the town of al-Kasra, in Nukhayb district, and reportedly wounded three other soldiers in subsequent armed clashes.⁴⁹¹

In January 2021, Anbar witnessed a temporary increase in attacks, from single digit attacks, mostly IEDs and gun battles, to around 10.⁴⁹² The number of ISIL activities declined thereafter and continued to remain on a relatively low level, reported blogger J. Wing in April and June 2021.⁴⁹³ Notwithstanding, ISIL continued to make its presence known in the governorate, including hit-and-run tactics against civilians, PMU forces and local security forces.⁴⁹⁴ The month of August witnessed successive attacks on power transmissions in several

483 Wing, J., Musings on Iraq, Islamic State attacks decline in December 2020, 04 January 2021, url

484 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. April 1, 2020 – June 30 2020, released 31 July 2020, url, pp. 22-23

485Epic, Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor (ISHM), ISHM: August 6- August 13, 2020, 13 August 2020, url

486 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. April 1, 2020 – June 30 2020, 31 July 2020, url, p. 23

487 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. October 1, 2020 – December 31 2020, 05 February 2021, url , pp. 23-24

488 Shafaq News, هينملاا تاعطقلا نم ولخت ي نلا قطانملا فدهتسي شعاد :هبطرلا ماقم مئاق, [Qaimaqam of Rutba: Daesh targets areas void of security sector], 29 November 2021, url

489 Emirates Policy Center (EPC), ISIS Strategy in Iraq, 5 January 2021, url

490 Al-Monitor, Islamic State increases attacks in Iraq’s Sunni areas, 1 December 2020, url

491 Kohlmann, E., @IntelTweet, [Twitter], 30 November 2020, url

492 Wing, J., Musings on Iraq, Violence continues to decline in Iraq, winter 2020-21, 04 February 2021, url

493 Wing, J., Musings on Iraq, Violence in Iraq, March 2021, 5 April 2021, url, Wing, J. Musings on Iraq, Security in Iraq June 2021, 6 July 2021, url

494 Al-Monitor, Islamic State uses hit-and-run tactics in Iraq, 11 July 2021, url

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governorates, including Anbar, prompting the government to ramp up security measures around power distribution facilities.⁴⁹⁵

The government undertook tighter security measures around the border areas facing Syria and Saudi Arabia. In April 2021, the Iraqi army launched a campaign targeting illegal border crossings, including passages of ISIL fighters, smuggling of weapons around al-Qaim border crossing, trench digging and erection of watchtowers.⁴⁹⁶ During the same month, the Ministry of Interior announced the arrest of the Commander of the 5^th Border Guard Force, after he failed to thwart an ISIL launched attack near the Arar border area with Saudi Arabia, which allowed ISIL to seize weapons and equipment at a police station.⁴⁹⁷

Conflict in Iraq between Iran and the US

The US airstrikes on KH bases in Syria on 26 February 2021⁴⁹⁸ interrupted the truce

announced in October 2020 by the coordinating body of the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee (Tansiqiya movement). As a consequence, a series of counterattacks against the base of the US-led coalition in Anbar, Ain al-Assad, occurred.⁴⁹⁹ In March 2021, KH-militias fired multiple rockets against the base.⁵⁰⁰ On 25 May 2021, a drone hit the base, without causing injuries.⁵⁰¹ A similar drone attack took place on 6 June 2021, but was intercepted and shot down.⁵⁰² In July 2021, Iran-backed forces fired rockets at the base, wounding three persons,⁵⁰³ including civilians. On 8 July 2021, a missile launcher used in the attack exploded, damaging and burning houses in a neighbourhood, including a mosque.⁵⁰⁴ The attack was in retaliation to previous US airstrikes on militia targets in the area the month before.⁵⁰⁵

The governorate also witnessed successive roadside IED attacks, targeting convoys carrying supplies for US-led coalition forces and causing disruption to local security, reported Garda in March and April 2021.⁵⁰⁶

Security incidents

In the reference period, 1 August 2020 – 31 October, ACLED reported 55 battles, 58 incidents of remote violence/explosions and 15 cases of violence against civilians, accounting for a total of 128 security incidents in Anbar governorate, the majority taking place in Al-Rutba district.⁵⁰⁷ The evolution of all types of security events in the reference period is shown in figure 13 below.

495 Al Mashreq, Iraqi officials ramp up security measures to protect power lines, 18 August 2021, url Iraqi

496 Shafaq News, Iraqi army to launch operations on the borders with Syria sources say, 21 April 2021, url, US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. April 1, 2021 – June 30 2021, 30 July 2021, url, p. 33

497 Middle East Monitor (MEMO), Iraq arrests commander of border force following Daesh attack, 29 April 2021, url

498 Reuters, U.S. air strikes in Syria target Iranian-backed militia-Pentagon, 26 February 2021, url

499 Washington Institute for Near East Policy (The) (TWI), KH publicly leads call for escalation against U.S.

presence, 7 March 2021, url

500 Aljazeera, Multiple rockets land at Iraq’s Ain al-Assad airbase: officials, 3 March 2021, url

501 Reuters, Attack by unmanned aerial surveillance targets Iraqi air base- US-led coalition, 8 May 2021, url

502 Reuters, Two drones intercepted, shot down over Iraqi air base-military, 6 June 2021, url

503 Reuters, Series of attacks target U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syrian, 8 July 2021, url

504 Aljazeera, Attacks on US in Iraq becoming a dangerous cycle: Analysts, 8 July 2021, url

505 Politico, U.S. airstrikes target Iran-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, 27 June 2021, url

506 Garda, Iraq: Supply convoy struck by improvised explosive device in Fallujah March 11, 11 March 2021, url, Garda, Improvised explosive device targets convoy carrying military supplies in Ramadi April 7, 7 April 2021, url, Shafaq News, An explosion targets a logistic convoy of the global coalition in al-Anbar, 6 may 2021, url

507 EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, ACLED Data Export Tool, 1 August 2020 – 31 October 2021, 10 November 2021, url

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Figure 10: Evolution of security events coded battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians in Anbar governorate 1 August 2020 – 31 October 2021, based on ACLED data⁵⁰⁸

Illustrative examples of incidents

• On 10 October 2020, a civilian was killed after entering a trip wired house in Rawa district.⁵⁰⁹

• A car bomb exploded in Haditha on 28 February 2021 during a joint operation carried out by the ISF and tribal militias, killing five persons.⁵¹⁰

• In March 2021, Iran-backed militias fired multiple rockets at Ain al-Assad military base, hosting U.S. and coalition forces. The attack caused no significant losses.⁵¹¹

• In May 2021, ISIL detonated a vehicle bomb at a gathering of Tribal Mobilization Forces, killing 12 persons.⁵¹²

508 EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, ACLED Data Export Tool, 1 August 2020 – 31 October 2021, 10 November 2021, url

509 Iraq News Agency (INA), رابنلاا ي ف خخفم ل يم هلوخد دعب نطاوم داهشتسإ :ي نملأا ملاعلاا,[Security media: Killing of civilian after entering tripwired house in Anbar], 10 October 2020, url

510 Anadolu Agency, Car-bomb explosion kills 5 in western Iraq, 28 February 2021, url

511 Aljazeera, Multiple rockets land at Iraq’s Ain al-Asad airbase: officials, 3 March 2021, url

512 US USDOD (US Department of Defense) Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve-Quarterly Report to the United States Congress. April 1, 2021 – June 30 2021, 30 July 2021, url, p. 14

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• In the beginning of May 2021, an explosive in Akashat area, of al-Qaim district, killed a high-ranking officer.⁵¹³

• A car bomb exploded in the district of Haditha on 25 May 2021, injuring 10 persons.

No party claimed responsibility for the attack.⁵¹⁴

• In July 2021, ISIL militants killed four fishermen and injured five others, in an attack near the Haditha dam.⁵¹⁵

• In August 2021, ISIL militants targeted border guards in Akashat, killing one and injuring another. A third guard, who was kidnapped,⁵¹⁶ was later found beheaded.⁵¹⁷

• On 3 October 2021, Basnews reported that a massive car bomb exploded in Ramadi, after security forces intercepted the vehicle before reaching its target. No group claimed responsibility for the incident.⁵¹⁸